North Sydney

The Sydney - North Sydney and Hornsby SA4 is forecast to grow from 426,172 people in 2021 to 505,403 in 2046, an increase of 79,231 people or 19%. Dwelling stock grows by 49,842 over the same period.

This SA4 is among the clearest examples in the current forecast round of the NSW Government's Transport Oriented Development (TOD) and Low and Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) reforms translating into an actual development pipeline. Identified development capacity across the SA4 has more than doubled since the previous forecast, from 53,263 dwellings to 111,872.

The question that raises for planners is whether that pipeline can be delivered within the forecast period. Of the 111,872 dwellings of site capacity identified in our development database, 72,433 (65%) are captured within the 2021 to 2046 forecast and the remaining 39,439 (35%) sit beyond it. On current absorption rates it takes close to the full 25 years to work through the pipeline identified today, before any further sites enter the system.

Willoughby is the largest single source of change this round, and it is substantially a Chatswood story. Chatswood sits on the North Shore and Metro lines and the Pacific Highway, and the locality currently carries 22 State Significant Development applications across 23 tracked sites, together accounting for 6,970 dwellings of identified capacity. Chatswood is not itself a TOD accelerated precinct, so this volume is coming through ordinary SSD thresholds and existing centre zoning. Willoughby's population is forecast to grow by 22,416 to 99,574, with 13,159 additional dwellings.

Chatswood - East accounts for 15,370 dwellings of identified capacity on its own, of which 4,364 (28%) sits beyond the 2046 horizon. Its dwelling stock is forecast to grow from 8,590 to 17,536, close to doubling. Because almost all of the new stock is apartments, average household size in Chatswood - East falls from 2.3 to 2.07 persons per dwelling, a steeper fall than the SA4 average of 2.36 to 2.2. That is why population growth here does not scale one-for-one with the dwelling numbers.

North Sydney's growth is concentrated around the Crows Nest and St Leonards accelerated TOD precinct, together with a cluster of build-to-rent developments elsewhere in the LGA. Identified capacity here rose by 17,698 dwellings this round. Population is forecast to reach 81,325 by 2046, an increase of 14,372, with 9,977 additional dwellings.

Lane Cove's growth is dominated by the St Leonards South precinct and its share of the joint St Leonards and Crows Nest TOD precinct. Identified capacity rose by 9,358 dwellings, and Lane Cove has the lowest share of capacity sitting beyond the forecast horizon of any LGA in the SA4 at 24%. This pipeline is further through delivery than most of the region, with a cluster of completions in St Leonards South landing over the next two years. Developer infrastructure contributions for St Leonards South were finalised with an IPART determination on 26 August 2025. Population is forecast to grow by 16,327 to 57,241, with 10,081 additional dwellings.

Ku-ring-gai and Hornsby (part) are both revised down this round, by 20,527 and 14,719 people respectively. That is better read as a redistribution of capacity than a slowdown. Two rounds ago these two LGAs held about 67% of the SA4's identified capacity between them. Capacity in both has since grown, by 3,350 dwellings in Ku-ring-gai and 1,185 in Hornsby (part), but it has grown far faster in Willoughby, North Sydney, Lane Cove and Mosman, where development is currently proving more commercially feasible. The two now account for about 36% of a much larger total.

Ku-ring-gai secured targeted carve-outs from the LMR reforms on tree canopy, deep soil and endangered ecological community grounds, including a 1,015 sqm minimum lot size for dual occupancies against the state's 450 sqm standard, and a 0.5:1 floor space ratio cap. Its North Shore line station precincts at Gordon, Killara, Lindfield and Roseville still carry a large amount of identified capacity enabled by the LMR reforms and the local environmental plan, but 40% of Ku-ring-gai's identified capacity sits beyond the 2046 horizon. Population is forecast to reach 143,863, an increase of 18,873, with 10,182 additional dwellings.

Hornsby (part) is one of the SA4's two TOD accelerated precincts, alongside Crows Nest, gazetted in the 27 November 2024 rezoning round. Its identified capacity grew by 1,185 dwellings and 42% of it sits beyond the 2046 horizon. The accelerated rezoning's masterplan implies considerably more long-run capacity than is currently reflected in individually tracked, moving sites. Population is forecast to reach 93,340, an increase of 5,649, with 4,839 additional dwellings. Note that Hornsby Shire extends beyond this SA4, and figures here cover only the portion within it.

Mosman is the smallest source of growth in the SA4 and has no TOD accelerated precinct. Identified capacity rose from a negligible base of 267 dwellings to 8,444, more than 30-fold, though 46% of that sits beyond the 2046 horizon, the highest share of any LGA in the SA4, reflecting how small and slow-moving its individual sites are. Population is forecast to reach 30,059, an increase of 1,593, against a previous forecast of a small net decline.