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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Mid North Coast
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Mid North Coast, which stretches along the NSW coast from Bulahdelah to Valla Beach, covering the Port Macquarie-Hastings and Kempsey council areas and parts of Mid-Coast and Nambucca Valley. Main centres include Port Macquarie, Kempsey, Nambucca Heads, Taree and Forster.
- Region
- Mid North Coast · SA4 108
- Councils
- Armidale (part), Bellingen (part), Kempsey, Mid-Coast (part), Nambucca Valley (part), Port Macquarie-Hastings, Unincorporated NSW (part)
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 05/12/2024
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Port Macquarie
- Wauchope
- Laurieton
- Kempsey
- South West Rocks
- Crescent Head
- Macksville
- Nambucca Heads
- Taree
- Gloucester
- Forster
- Tuncurry
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.42m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionMid North Coast+50,9542.1% of New South Wales' growth2021.2022.1.1.1 · Dec 2024
- Below the region22 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
228,870
Population, 2021
279,824
Population, 2046
+50,954
Total growth to 2046
+28,739
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 228,870 | — | 110,739 | — | 16.0 | 54.7 | 29.3 |
| 2026 | 242,065 | +13,195 | 117,094 | +6,355 | 14.9 | 52.9 | 32.2 |
| 2031 | 252,647 | +10,582 | 122,990 | +5,896 | 14.2 | 51.1 | 34.7 |
| 2036 | 262,288 | +9,641 | 128,634 | +5,644 | 14.1 | 49.8 | 36.1 |
| 2041 | 271,344 | +9,056 | 134,153 | +5,519 | 13.9 | 49.1 | 37.1 |
| 2046 | 279,824 | +8,480 | 139,478 | +5,325 | 13.6 | 49.2 | 37.2 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Great Lakes | 51.7% | |
| Kempsey – Nambucca | 25.0% | |
| Port Macquarie | 42.9% | |
| Taree – Gloucester | 37.2% | |
| Mid North Coast total | 38.2% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 541 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Tuncurry - Landcom | 346 The Lakes Way Tuncurry NSW | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| North Tuncurry - Landcom | 346 The Lakes Way Tuncurry NSW | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Fernbank Creek Future Urban | 482 Sancrox Road FERNBANK CREEK | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Forster Growth Area 5 | 5 Sweet Pea Road Forster NSW | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| West Bonny Hills Investigation Area | 12 Bain Place BONNY HILLS | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 364 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Port Macquarie
- Taree
- Forster
- Wauchope
- Nambucca Heads
- Tuncurry
- South West Rocks
- Old Bar
- Wingham
- Lake Cathie
- West Kempsey
- Harrington
- Thrumster
- Bonny Hills
- Gloucester
- Macksville
- South Kempsey
- Cundletown
- Laurieton
- Kew
- + 344 more
Plus 344 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Mid North Coast
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 541 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.