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Population forecast for New South Wales
Our 2025 population forecast for New South Wales, and the starting point for the forecasts of its 28 regions.
- State
- New South Wales
- Regions
- 28, each forecast individually
- Base
- ABS ERP June 2024
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
The forecast
8,097,062
Population, 2021
10,265,945
Population, 2046
+2,168,883
Total growth to 2046
25.3%
Share of national growth
+1,070,587
Additional dwellings
22.2%
Aged 65 and over, 2046
28
Regions forecast individually
Age structure
| Age group | 2021 | 2046 | Change, percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aged 0–14 | 18.4% | 16.1% | −2.3 |
| Aged 15–64 | 64.3% | 61.7% | −2.6 |
| Aged 65 and over | 17.2% | 22.2% | +5.0 |
New South Wales' population, 2021 to 2046
Our 2025 forecast, by year (at 30 June).
- Our forecast · 10.27m (our forecast)
Source: Informed Decisions, National Forecasting Program, 2025 forecast. 2021 to 2024 are ABS estimated resident population.
+ Show the data− Hide the data
| Year | Our forecast |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 8.10m |
| 2026 | 8.70m |
| 2031 | 9.14m |
| 2036 | 9.56m |
| 2041 | 9.92m |
| 2046 | 10.27m |
Download the full series (CSV)
Informed Decisions, National Forecasting Program, 2025 forecast
Where New South Wales sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: StateNew South Wales+2.17m to 204625.3% of national growth2025 forecast
- Below the state28 regions, forecast individuallyThe largest growth is forecast for Sydney – South West. Each region carries its own release.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. How it is distributed inside New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground, region by region.
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Net overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State (this page)
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing and planning policy
- Economic conditions
- Region
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
- Local capacity
Components of population change, 2021 to 2046
| Component | 2021 to 2046 |
|---|---|
| Births | +2,542,640 |
| Deaths | −1,919,629 |
| Natural increase | +623,011 |
| Net overseas migration | +2,177,419 |
| Net interstate migration | −631,547 |
| Total change | +2,168,883 |
Regional forecasts for New South Wales
| Region | Population, 2021 | Population, 2046 | Growth to 2046 | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Region | 238,522 | 292,323 | +53,801 | 2021.2022.1.1.2 · Oct 2024 |
| Central Coast | 348,379 | 412,503 | +64,124 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Mar 2024 |
| Central West | 213,545 | 237,123 | +23,578 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Aug 2026 |
| Coffs Harbour – Grafton | 146,115 | 178,501 | +32,386 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Feb 2025 |
| Far West and Orana | 117,178 | 116,806 | −372 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Jan 2025 |
| Hunter Valley exc Newcastle | 292,906 | 414,366 | +121,460 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Mar 2024 |
| Illawarra | 313,990 | 419,345 | +105,355 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Mar 2024 |
| Mid North Coast | 228,870 | 279,824 | +50,954 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Dec 2024 |
| Murray | 123,332 | 151,852 | +28,520 | 2021.2022.1.1.2 · Mar 2025 |
| New England and North West | 186,942 | 209,975 | +23,033 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Feb 2025 |
| Newcastle and Lake Macquarie | 391,095 | 478,120 | +87,025 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Mar 2024 |
| Richmond – Tweed | 256,820 | 301,673 | +44,853 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · May 2026 |
| Riverina | 164,287 | 177,941 | +13,654 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Sep 2026 |
| Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven | 160,808 | 198,180 | +37,372 | 2021.2024.3.1.2 · May 2026 |
| Sydney – Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury | 265,266 | 418,063 | +152,797 | 2021.2022.1.1.2 · Oct 2024 |
| Sydney – Blacktown | 404,175 | 575,653 | +171,478 | 2021.2024.3.1.2 · Jun 2026 |
| Sydney – City and Inner South | 335,429 | 445,586 | +110,157 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Aug 2024 |
| Sydney – Eastern Suburbs | 263,656 | 299,126 | +35,470 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Jul 2024 |
| Sydney – Inner South West | 607,186 | 765,536 | +158,350 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Jan 2025 |
| Sydney – Inner West | 306,292 | 382,620 | +76,328 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Oct 2024 |
| Sydney – North Sydney and Hornsby | 426,172 | 505,403 | +79,231 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Aug 2026 |
| Sydney – Northern Beaches | 264,481 | 303,195 | +38,714 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Jul 2024 |
| Sydney – Outer South West | 298,999 | 429,333 | +130,334 | 2021.2022.1.1.3 · Mar 2025 |
| Sydney – Outer West and Blue Mountains | 334,001 | 414,765 | +80,764 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Mar 2024 |
| Sydney – Parramatta | 496,672 | 752,142 | +255,470 | 2021.2022.1.1.2 · Apr 2024 |
| Sydney – Ryde | 202,922 | 291,429 | +88,507 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Nov 2024 |
| Sydney – South West | 476,152 | 740,319 | +264,167 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Apr 2024 |
| Sydney – Sutherland | 230,301 | 264,307 | +34,006 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Nov 2024 |
Our forecasting team
Common questions about the forecast for New South Wales
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters.
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organisations across Australia trust Informed Decisions for data and insights
15,000+
suburbs forecast, covering every part of Australia
A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker is our mapping and reporting platform for population, housing and development. Draw any catchment in New South Wales and get the forecast for it, by single year, with age and sex detail and the development pipeline behind it.