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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Hunter Valley exc Newcastle
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Hunter Valley exc Newcastle, which covers the Cessnock, Dungog and Muswellbrook council areas and parts of Maitland, Port Stephens, Singleton, Upper Hunter and Mid-Coast, including Maitland, Cessnock, Singleton, Muswellbrook, Raymond Terrace and Nelson Bay.
- Region
- Hunter Valley exc Newcastle · SA4 106
- Councils
- Cessnock, Dungog, Liverpool Plains (part), Maitland (part), Mid-Coast (part), Muswellbrook, Port Stephens (part), Singleton (part), Upper Hunter (part)
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 05/03/2024
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Maitland
- East Maitland
- Cessnock
- Kurri Kurri
- Pokolbin
- Branxton
- Singleton
- Muswellbrook
- Scone
- Dungog
- Raymond Terrace
- Nelson Bay
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.42m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionHunter Valley exc Newcastle+121,4605.0% of New South Wales' growth2021.2022.1.1.1 · Mar 2024
- Below the region25 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
292,906
Population, 2021
414,366
Population, 2046
+121,460
Total growth to 2046
+57,096
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 292,906 | — | 125,582 | — | 19.9 | 61.4 | 18.7 |
| 2026 | 320,978 | +28,072 | 135,648 | +10,066 | 18.6 | 60.4 | 21.0 |
| 2031 | 344,645 | +23,667 | 147,491 | +11,843 | 17.6 | 59.2 | 23.1 |
| 2036 | 367,720 | +23,075 | 159,158 | +11,667 | 17.1 | 58.3 | 24.6 |
| 2041 | 390,966 | +23,246 | 170,849 | +11,691 | 16.7 | 57.6 | 25.7 |
| 2046 | 414,366 | +23,400 | 182,678 | +11,829 | 16.5 | 57.4 | 26.1 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Lower Hunter | 74.9% | |
| Maitland | 95.6% | |
| Port Stephens | 55.9% | |
| Upper Hunter | 8.8% | |
| Hunter Valley exc Newcastle total | 66.1% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 990 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regrowth Kurri Kurri (Cliftleigh Side) | KURRI KURRI - ABERMAIN | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Huntlee Estate - Village 2 | Hanwood Road, Pokolbin | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Arambah Residential Land Investigation Area | 381 Anambah Road ANAMBAH | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Parry'S Cove Estate | 7 Petrel Place TEA GARDENS | Greenfield | Marketing |
| Huntlee Estate - Town Centre | Wine Country Drive, North Rothbury | Greenfield | Site clearing |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 328 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Cessnock
- Rutherford
- Raymond Terrace
- Medowie
- Muswellbrook
- East Maitland
- Thornton
- Aberglasslyn
- Chisholm
- Kurri Kurri
- Nelson Bay
- Scone
- Gillieston Heights
- Corlette
- Singleton
- Singleton Heights
- Salamander Bay
- North Rothbury
- Metford
- Ashtonfield
- + 308 more
Plus 308 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Hunter Valley exc Newcastle
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 990 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.