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National Forecasting Program
Population forecast for Australia
Our 2026 population forecast for Australia and every state and territory, presented in October 2026.
- Geography
- Australia
- Base
- ABS ERP June 2025
- Released
- 23/09/2026
- Status
- Current
- Horizon
- 2046
The forecast
25,685,412
Population, 2021
33,814,015
Population, 2046
+8,128,603
Total growth to 2046
22.2%
Aged 65 and over, 2046
How we give you an up-to-date forecast for your place
Your forecast starts with Australia. We forecast the nation and each state and territory first, then the regions in each state, then your suburbs and development sites, so your place is always seen in its regional and national context. At each level our forecasters research what drives growth there, down to housing supply assessed site by site.
We regularly review new information, such as ABS population estimates, new policies and what is happening on the ground, and update a forecast when that information materially changes the assumptions underneath it. A new national forecast then flows down one state at a time, so each region is reforecast with the local research it needs.
So your region may be built on an earlier national forecast than this one. The panel at the top of every page shows which.
Where the 2026 forecast is up to
- Step 1Australia, states and territoriesCompleteOur 2026 forecast, presented in October 2026.2021.2025.1
- You are here: Step 2The regions in each stateUnderwayRegions move to the 2026 forecast one state at a time. Until then each shows its latest forecast: 51 on the 2025 forecast and 37 on earlier ones.
- Step 3Suburbs and development sitesNext upSmall-area forecasts are updated along with their region.
Age structure
| Age group | 2021 | 2046 | Change, percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aged 0–14 | 18.5% | 14.6% | −3.9 |
| Aged 15–64 | 64.7% | 63.2% | −1.5 |
| Aged 65 and over | 16.8% | 22.2% | +5.4 |
Australia's population, 2021 to 2046
Our 2026 forecast, by year (at 30 June).
- Our forecast · 33.81m (our forecast)
Source: Informed Decisions, National Forecasting Program, 2026 forecast (version 2021.2025.1). 2021 to 2025 are ABS estimated resident population.
+ Show the data− Hide the data
| Year | Our forecast |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 25.69m |
| 2026 | 27.97m |
| 2031 | 29.60m |
| 2036 | 31.14m |
| 2041 | 32.53m |
| 2046 | 33.81m |
Download the full series (CSV)
Informed Decisions, National Forecasting Program, version 2021.2025.1
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation (this page)
- Net overseas migration
- Fertility
- Life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Economic conditions
- Region
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Housing capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
- Local capacity
Components of population change, 2021 to 2046
| Component | 2021 to 2046 |
|---|---|
| Births | +7,617,373 |
| Deaths | −5,910,757 |
| Natural increase | +1,706,616 |
| Net overseas migration | +6,421,987 |
| Total change | +8,128,603 |
Who prepared this forecast
Forecasts for every state and territory
| State or territory | Population, 2021 | Population, 2046 | Growth to 2046 | Share of national growth | Regions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | 8,097,062 | 10,015,519 | +1,918,457 | 23.6% | 28 |
| Victoria | 6,547,822 | 8,921,322 | +2,373,500 | 29.2% | 17 |
| Queensland | 5,215,814 | 7,268,923 | +2,053,109 | 25.3% | 19 |
| South Australia | 1,802,601 | 2,116,134 | +313,533 | 3.9% | 7 |
| Western Australia | 2,749,365 | 3,999,540 | +1,250,175 | 15.4% | 10 |
| Tasmania | 567,239 | 595,717 | +28,478 | 0.4% | 4 |
| Northern Territory | 248,151 | 317,637 | +69,486 | 0.9% | 2 |
| Australian Capital Territory | 452,508 | 574,546 | +122,038 | 1.5% | 1 |
| Other Territories | 4,850 | 4,677 | −173 | 0.0% | — |
| Australia | 25,685,412 | 33,814,015 | +8,128,603 | 100.0% | 88 |
Common questions about the forecast for Australia
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters, not extrapolated from trend.
500+
organisations across Australia trust Informed Decisions for data and insights
15,000+
suburbs forecast, covering every part of Australia
A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker is our mapping and reporting platform for population, housing and development. Draw any catchment and get the forecast for it, by single year, with age and sex detail and the development pipeline behind it.