GOVERNMENT TOOLS
CONSULTING
Australia's population outlook: what is really driving change?
Save your place at this upcoming briefing
Tuesday 13 October 2026, 1:00 to 2:00pm AEDT
12:30pm ACDT · 12:00pm Brisbane · 10:00am Perth. Online, 60 minutes.
Housing, overseas migration, even the fertility rate: the forces shaping our population have dominated the headlines and the national debate in recent months.
But at the local level, these forces will affect the trajectory of communities (and what they need in services, infrastructure and housing) in very different ways.
In this briefing we share our updated population forecasts for Australia, released in September 2026.
Amid a heated public debate, we'll give our independent assessment of the factors driving Australia's population growth, and the share of that growth forecast to go to each state and territory.
We'll also explore some shifts you might not have considered that could have an outsized effect on the community you serve, from fewer children starting school to too few workers to build the homes already approved.
Submit a question when you register, or ask on the day. We answer as many as we can in the session, and our team follows up on the rest afterwards.
All registrants are sent the recording and the slides.
PRESENTED BY
Liza Ivanova
Principal Forecast Consultant
Oliver Bowering
Senior Forecast Consultant
Andrew Hedge
Host
IN THIS SESSION
A preview of the drivers we'll examine
This is the third session in our 2026 Data Intelligence series, where we share the results from Informed Decisions' independent research programs.
This is also the beginning of a new National Forecasting Program cycle: our independent forecast for the total population of Australia, how that’s shared between each state and teritory, and ultimately to each suburb in the country. This is how we ensure the forecast for your local are fully considers the wider regional and national context shaping your place.
New informaiton means changing forecast assumptions. These are some of the changes we’ll be sharing.
Births
We've revised down our long-term fertility assumption below any we've used before, in line with Treasury's own downward revision. In NSW alone, that means about 58,000 fewer children aged five to nine by 2046.
Deaths, and living longer
Life expectancy is heading back towards its pre-COVID trend. We've revised it up, but we're more cautious than Treasury, because the latest life tables (2022 to 2024) still carry the effects of COVID.
Overseas migration
Most of the fall in international students is coming from China, not India, and Indian students are about three times as likely to stay permanently. We look at who is arriving on each visa type, and what that means for population growth.
Moving between states
One state's share of overseas and interstate arrivals has more than doubled, while departures from another have more than halved. We'll show which states, what's behind it, and how long we expect it to last.
How much we can build
New housing only gets built if there are workers to build them. Chatswood has around 10,000 dwellings in the approvals pipeline. Queensland's Olympic venues are already under way, and our forecasts assume construction workers keep arriving there until 2032.
From the national picture to your area
The national forecasts set the totals for each state and territory, and those totals set the numbers for every region beneath them.
About the National Forecasting Program
This briefing shares analysis from the National Forecasting Program: our independent forecast of population and housing for every local area in Australia.
Who this is for
The briefing is for people planning infrastructure and services in government, industry and the not-for-profit sector.
For our current clients and subscribers, it explains the reasoning behind changes to key assumptions in our forecasts. Those changes alter the forecast for the nation, and will cascade down to local areas as we roll out updates in the coming months.
A first look at something new
Join us for a preview of a new source of information and forecast analysis from our team, which lets you see how these national trends are playing out in your region.