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Population forecast for the Australian Capital Territory
Our latest population forecast for the Australian Capital Territory, which covers the whole of the Australian Capital Territory, including Canberra's city centre and suburbs such as Belconnen, Gungahlin, Phillip, Kambah and Molonglo.
- State
- Australian Capital Territory · SA4 801
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2023.2)
- Released
- 09/04/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- City
- Braddon
- Barton
- Kingston
- Dickson
- Belconnen
- Bruce
- Gungahlin
- Phillip
- Kambah
- Molonglo
- Hall
Where the ACT sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: TerritoryAustralian Capital Territory+142,439Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2023.2.2.1 · Apr 2025
- Below the territory134 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
The ACT is forecast as a single region. Its growth is built from development assessed on the ground, site by site.
The forecast
452,508
Population, 2021
594,947
Population, 2046
+142,439
Total growth to 2046
+82,468
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 452,508 | — | 186,963 | — | 18.5 | 68.2 | 13.3 |
| 2026 | 492,938 | +40,430 | 207,496 | +20,533 | 17.7 | 67.7 | 14.6 |
| 2031 | 525,193 | +32,255 | 225,880 | +18,384 | 17.3 | 66.3 | 16.4 |
| 2036 | 552,274 | +27,081 | 241,704 | +15,824 | 16.4 | 65.2 | 18.4 |
| 2041 | 574,557 | +22,283 | 255,891 | +14,187 | 15.0 | 64.6 | 20.5 |
| 2046 | 594,947 | +20,390 | 269,431 | +13,540 | 13.7 | 63.8 | 22.5 |
The ACT's population, 2021 to 2046
Our forecast, by year (at 30 June).
- Our forecast · 0.6m (our forecast)
Source: Informed Decisions, National Forecasting Program, version 2021.2023.2.2.1.
+ Show the data− Hide the data
| Year | Our forecast |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 0.45m |
| 2026 | 0.49m |
| 2031 | 0.53m |
| 2036 | 0.55m |
| 2041 | 0.58m |
| 2046 | 0.60m |
Download the full series (CSV)
Informed Decisions, National Forecasting Program, version 2021.2023.2.2.1
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Belconnen | 61.1% | |
| Canberra East | 0.0% | |
| Gungahlin | 80.1% | |
| Molonglo | 89.0% | |
| North Canberra | 65.9% | |
| South Canberra | 87.1% | |
| Tuggeranong | 30.8% | |
| Uriarra – Namadgi | 0.0% | |
| Weston Creek | 57.7% | |
| Woden Valley | 59.8% | |
| ACT total | 65.9% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 525 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denman Prospect Stage 3 | DENMAN PROSPECT | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Molonglo Valley - Stage 3: Suburb 2 | MOLONGLO - EAST | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Molonglo Valley - Stage 3: Suburb 2 | 400 Coppins Crossing Road MOLONGLO VALLEY | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Molonglo Central Psp | MOLONGLO | Apartments | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| North Curtin Redevelopment Site | CURTIN | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 136 suburbs and localities in this territory. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Kambah
- Ngunnawal
- Gungahlin
- Belconnen
- Phillip
- Harrison
- Bruce
- Watson
- Wanniassa
- Gordon
- Kaleen
- Franklin
- Bonner
- Dunlop
- Kingston
- Denman Prospect
- Braddon
- Macgregor
- Coombs
- Lyneham
- + 116 more
Plus 116 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for the Australian Capital Territory
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 525 development sites assessed in this territory alone.
500+
organisations across Australia trust Informed Decisions for data and insights
15,000+
suburbs forecast, covering every part of Australia
A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside the territory, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.