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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Central West
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Central West, which covers the Bathurst, Blayney, Cowra, Forbes, Lithgow, Orange, Parkes and Weddin council areas and parts of Bland, Cabonne, Lachlan, Mid-Western and Oberon, with centres including Bathurst, Orange, Mudgee and Lithgow.
- Region
- Central West · SA4 103
- Councils
- Bathurst, Bland (part), Blayney, Blue Mountains (part), Cabonne (part), Cowra, Dubbo (part), Forbes, Lachlan (part), Lithgow, Mid-Western (part), Oberon (part), Orange, Parkes, Singleton (part), Upper Hunter (part), Warrumbungle (part), Weddin
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 13/08/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Bathurst
- Orange
- Lithgow
- Mudgee
- Gulgong
- Oberon
- Blayney
- Cowra
- Parkes
- Forbes
- Condobolin
- West Wyalong
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionCentral West+23,5781.1% of New South Wales' growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Aug 2026
- Below the region23 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
213,545
Population, 2021
237,123
Population, 2046
+23,578
Total growth to 2046
+16,857
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 213,545 | — | 97,130 | — | 19.8 | 59.8 | 20.3 |
| 2026 | 219,023 | +5,478 | 99,502 | +2,372 | 18.7 | 59.2 | 22.1 |
| 2031 | 224,817 | +5,794 | 102,942 | +3,440 | 18.4 | 57.5 | 24.1 |
| 2036 | 230,224 | +5,407 | 106,970 | +4,028 | 18.5 | 56.2 | 25.3 |
| 2041 | 234,138 | +3,914 | 110,730 | +3,760 | 18.6 | 55.4 | 26.0 |
| 2046 | 237,123 | +2,985 | 113,987 | +3,257 | 18.6 | 55.5 | 25.9 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Bathurst | 32.5% | |
| Lachlan Valley | 18.8% | |
| Lithgow – Mudgee | 26.6% | |
| Orange | 40.9% | |
| Central West total | 31.1% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 350 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caerleon Estate Remainder | 89 - Fairydale Lane Caerleon | Greenfield | Marketing |
| Westpoint Precinct - Potential Greenfield Development | 221 - Ophir Road Llanarth | Greenfield | Approved |
| Laffing Waters - Core Area | 151 - Laffing Waters Lane Laffing Waters | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Caerleon Estate Remainder | 37 - Enfield Avenue Caerleon | Greenfield | Approved |
| Orange - Shiralee Development | 477 - Brabham Way Orange | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Who prepared this forecast
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 425 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Orange
- Mudgee
- Parkes
- Kelso
- Cowra
- Forbes
- Bathurst
- Lithgow
- West Bathurst
- Blayney
- Windradyne
- Oberon
- Condobolin
- Eglinton
- West Wyalong
- Gulgong
- Molong
- Grenfell
- Portland
- Canowindra
- + 405 more
Plus 405 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Central West
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 350 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.