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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Sydney – Outer South West
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Sydney – Outer South West, which covers parts of the Campbelltown, Camden and Wollondilly council areas, including the urban centre of Campbelltown, Ingleburn, Narellan, Camden, and the towns of Picton, Tahmoor, Appin and Wilton.
- Region
- Sydney – Outer South West · SA4 123
- Councils
- Camden (part), Campbelltown (NSW) (part), Liverpool (part), Sutherland (part), Wingecarribee (part), Wollondilly (part)
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 20/03/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Glenfield
- Macquarie Fields
- Ingleburn
- Campbelltown
- Narellan
- Harrington Park
- Mount Annan
- Camden
- Picton
- Tahmoor
- Appin
- Wilton
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.42m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionSydney – Outer South West+130,3345.4% of New South Wales' growth2021.2022.1.1.3 · Mar 2025
- Below the region21 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
298,999
Population, 2021
429,333
Population, 2046
+130,334
Total growth to 2046
+53,104
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 298,999 | — | 104,329 | — | 22.6 | 64.4 | 13.0 |
| 2026 | 326,291 | +27,292 | 113,138 | +8,809 | 21.7 | 64.2 | 14.0 |
| 2031 | 351,195 | +24,904 | 123,205 | +10,067 | 20.8 | 64.4 | 14.8 |
| 2036 | 376,218 | +25,023 | 133,847 | +10,642 | 20.1 | 64.8 | 15.1 |
| 2041 | 402,296 | +26,078 | 145,237 | +11,390 | 19.9 | 64.8 | 15.3 |
| 2046 | 429,333 | +27,037 | 157,433 | +12,196 | 19.9 | 64.6 | 15.5 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Camden | 52.4% | |
| Campbelltown (NSW) | 56.2% | |
| Wollondilly | 45.9% | |
| Sydney – Outer South West total | 51.2% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 465 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wilton Greens Estate | Picton Road | Redevelopment | Marketing |
| Mt Gilead & Menangle Park Urban Release | GILEAD | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Mount Gilead Urban Capable Area | Menangle Road | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Wilton Greens Estate | Picton Road | Greenfield | Site clearing |
| Menangle Park - Future Urban | MENANGLE PARK - future Urban | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 75 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Campbelltown
- Ingleburn
- Minto
- Macquarie Fields
- Harrington Park
- Mount Annan
- Denham Court
- Spring Farm
- Glenfield
- Leumeah
- Bradbury
- Bardia
- Elderslie (Camden - NSW)
- Rosemeadow
- Ambarvale
- Narellan Vale
- Tahmoor
- St Helens Park
- Wilton
- Eagle Vale
- + 55 more
Plus 55 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Sydney – Outer South West
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 465 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.