GOVERNMENT TOOLS
CONSULTING
National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for New England and North West
Our latest population and housing forecasts for New England and North West, which borders Queensland to the north and covers the Tamworth, Gunnedah, Narrabri, Moree Plains, Inverell, Gwydir, Glen Innes Severn, Tenterfield, Uralla and Walcha council areas and parts of Armidale and Liverpool Plains.
- Region
- New England and North West · SA4 110
- Councils
- Armidale (part), Glen Innes Severn, Gunnedah, Gwydir, Inverell, Liverpool Plains (part), Moree Plains, Narrabri, Tamworth, Tenterfield, Uralla, Walcha
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 28/02/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Tamworth
- Gunnedah
- Quirindi
- Narrabri
- Wee Waa
- Moree
- Inverell
- Glen Innes
- Tenterfield
- Armidale
- Guyra
- Walcha
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.42m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionNew England and North West+23,0331.0% of New South Wales' growth2021.2022.1.1.1 · Feb 2025
- Below the region20 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
186,942
Population, 2021
209,975
Population, 2046
+23,033
Total growth to 2046
+13,234
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 186,942 | — | 85,613 | — | 19.6 | 59.8 | 20.6 |
| 2026 | 192,264 | +5,322 | 88,302 | +2,689 | 18.6 | 59.1 | 22.3 |
| 2031 | 196,953 | +4,689 | 90,909 | +2,607 | 18.1 | 58.1 | 23.8 |
| 2036 | 201,484 | +4,531 | 93,577 | +2,668 | 18.3 | 57.1 | 24.5 |
| 2041 | 206,012 | +4,528 | 96,266 | +2,689 | 18.3 | 56.9 | 24.8 |
| 2046 | 209,975 | +3,963 | 98,847 | +2,581 | 18.2 | 57.3 | 24.5 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Armidale | 32.2% | |
| Inverell – Tenterfield | 47.0% | |
| Moree – Narrabri | 24.3% | |
| Tamworth – Gunnedah | 53.9% | |
| New England and North West total | 46.2% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 237 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arcadia West | TAMWORTH - EAST | Greenfield | Approved |
| Arcadia West 2 | 21 Burgmanns Lane WARRAL | Greenfield | Approved |
| Stratheden Estate | 707 Manilla Road OXLEY VALE | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| The Outlook Estate (Future Stages) | 47 Myrl Street CALALA | Greenfield | Marketing |
| Arcadia West 3 | TAMWORTH SURROUNDS | Greenfield | Approved |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 369 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Armidale
- Inverell
- Gunnedah
- Moree
- Narrabri
- South Tamworth
- Hillvue
- North Tamworth
- Glen Innes
- West Tamworth
- East Tamworth
- Calala
- Tenterfield
- Oxley Vale
- Quirindi
- Moore Creek
- Westdale (Tamworth Regional - NSW)
- Uralla
- Walcha
- Kootingal
- + 349 more
Plus 349 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for New England and North West
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 237 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.