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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Illawarra
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Illawarra, which covers the Wollongong and Shellharbour council areas and part of Kiama, including Wollongong, Port Kembla, Thirroul, Dapto, Shellharbour, Albion Park, Kiama and Gerringong.
- Region
- Illawarra · SA4 107
- Councils
- Campbelltown (NSW) (part), Kiama (part), Shellharbour, Shoalhaven (part), Sutherland (part), Wingecarribee (part), Wollondilly (part), Wollongong
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 13/03/2024
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Helensburgh
- Thirroul
- Corrimal
- Wollongong
- Port Kembla
- Dapto
- Albion Park
- Calderwood
- Shellharbour
- Shell Cove
- Kiama
- Gerringong
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.42m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionIllawarra+105,3554.4% of New South Wales' growth2021.2022.1.1.1 · Mar 2024
- Below the region24 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
313,990
Population, 2021
419,345
Population, 2046
+105,355
Total growth to 2046
+49,933
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 313,990 | — | 129,913 | — | 18.2 | 63.1 | 18.7 |
| 2026 | 335,484 | +21,494 | 138,542 | +8,629 | 17.3 | 62.8 | 19.9 |
| 2031 | 356,661 | +21,177 | 148,700 | +10,158 | 17.0 | 62.1 | 20.9 |
| 2036 | 377,719 | +21,058 | 158,978 | +10,278 | 17.0 | 61.8 | 21.2 |
| 2041 | 398,619 | +20,900 | 169,335 | +10,357 | 17.1 | 61.4 | 21.5 |
| 2046 | 419,345 | +20,726 | 179,846 | +10,511 | 17.2 | 61.5 | 21.4 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Dapto – Port Kembla | 67.2% | |
| Kiama – Shellharbour | 68.7% | |
| Wollongong | 67.8% | |
| Illawarra total | 67.8% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 614 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wollongong potential development | Wollongong | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Wollongong potential development | Wollongong | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Wollongong potential development | Wollongong | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| West Dapto Stage 3 - Cleveland | CLEVELAND | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| West Dapto Stage 3 - Cleveland | CLEVELAND | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 109 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Wollongong
- Albion Park
- Figtree
- Woonona
- Dapto
- Horsley
- Shell Cove
- Kiama
- Fairy Meadow
- Berkeley
- Flinders
- Corrimal
- Albion Park Rail
- Oak Flats
- Bulli
- Helensburgh
- Warilla
- Thirroul
- Barrack Heights
- Kanahooka
- + 89 more
Plus 89 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Illawarra
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 614 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.