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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Capital Region
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Capital Region, which surrounds the Australian Capital Territory and stretches to the coast, covering the Queanbeyan-Palerang, Goulburn Mulwaree, Upper Lachlan, Hilltops, Eurobodalla and Bega Valley council areas and parts of Snowy Monaro and Yass Valley.
- Region
- Capital Region · SA4 101
- Councils
- Bega Valley, Eurobodalla, Goulburn Mulwaree, Hilltops, Queanbeyan-Palerang, Shoalhaven (part), Snowy Monaro (part), Snowy Valleys (part), Upper Lachlan, Wingecarribee (part), Yass Valley (part)
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 25/10/2024
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Queanbeyan
- Googong
- Yass
- Goulburn
- Young
- Cooma
- Jindabyne
- Batemans Bay
- Narooma
- Bega
- Merimbula
- Eden
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.42m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionCapital Region+53,8012.2% of New South Wales' growth2021.2022.1.1.2 · Oct 2024
- Below the region28 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
238,522
Population, 2021
292,323
Population, 2046
+53,801
Total growth to 2046
+29,122
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 238,522 | — | 117,175 | — | 17.6 | 60.7 | 21.7 |
| 2026 | 252,405 | +13,883 | 123,553 | +6,378 | 16.7 | 59.2 | 24.1 |
| 2031 | 263,760 | +11,355 | 129,629 | +6,076 | 16.0 | 57.5 | 26.5 |
| 2036 | 273,890 | +10,130 | 135,371 | +5,742 | 15.4 | 56.4 | 28.2 |
| 2041 | 283,405 | +9,515 | 140,903 | +5,532 | 14.8 | 55.9 | 29.3 |
| 2046 | 292,323 | +8,918 | 146,297 | +5,394 | 14.6 | 55.9 | 29.5 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Goulburn – Mulwaree | 42.8% | |
| Queanbeyan | 84.0% | |
| Snowy Mountains | 4.9% | |
| South Coast | 22.7% | |
| Young – Yass | 15.7% | |
| Capital Region total | 28.5% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 1,037 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Googong South | 194 Googong Road Googong | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Googong East | 64 Googong Road Googong | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Googong Central | 36 Googong Road Googong | Greenfield | Under construction |
| South Tralee | 101 Alderson Place Tralee | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Googong West | 1043 Old Cooma Road Googong | Greenfield | Under construction |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 477 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Goulburn
- Young
- Googong
- Jerrabomberra
- Karabar
- Yass
- Cooma
- Queanbeyan
- Bega
- Bungendore
- Crestwood
- Moruya
- Queanbeyan East
- Merimbula
- Murrumbateman
- Tura Beach
- Eden
- Queanbeyan West
- Jindabyne
- Crookwell
- + 457 more
Plus 457 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Capital Region
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 1,037 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.