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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Sydney – North Sydney and Hornsby
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Sydney's North Shore, from the harbourside suburbs of North Sydney and Mosman, through the Chatswood and Crows Nest densification corridor, to the eastern part of Hornsby at the edge of Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park.
- Region
- Sydney – North Sydney and Hornsby · SA4 121
- Councils
- Hornsby (part), Ku-ring-gai, Lane Cove, Mosman, North Sydney, Ryde (part), Willoughby
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 28/08/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Chatswood
- Crows Nest
- St Leonards
- Hornsby
- Gordon
- Killara
- Lindfield
- Turramurra
- Neutral Bay
- Cremorne
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionSydney – North Sydney and Hornsby+79,2313.7% of New South Wales' growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Aug 2026
- Below the region26 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
Also checked against every other SA4 in Greater Sydney: this region ranks 10th of 15 by growth, 4.6% of Greater Sydney's total. A real but not exceptional share.
The recurring question this raises, and the one this round specifically set out to quantify, is whether the identified pipeline can actually be built out within the forecast horizon… The answer to ‘can this all be built at once’ is no.
The forecast
426,172
Population, 2021
505,403
Population, 2046
+79,231
Total growth to 2046
+49,842
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 426,172 | — | 180,364 | — | 18.1 | 64.9 | 17.0 |
| 2026 | 453,049 | +26,877 | 186,194 | +5,830 | 16.4 | 65.6 | 18.1 |
| 2031 | 469,438 | +16,389 | 197,487 | +11,293 | 15.2 | 65.1 | 19.7 |
| 2036 | 484,029 | +14,591 | 209,832 | +12,345 | 14.3 | 64.6 | 21.1 |
| 2041 | 495,638 | +11,609 | 220,339 | +10,507 | 13.8 | 63.7 | 22.5 |
| 2046 | 505,403 | +9,765 | 230,206 | +9,867 | 13.8 | 62.8 | 23.4 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Chatswood – Lane Cove | 68.6% | |
| Hornsby | 42.7% | |
| Ku-ring-gai | 45.8% | |
| North Sydney – Mosman | 45.4% | |
| Sydney – North Sydney and Hornsby total | 54.0% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 683 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chatswood Dive Site Development | 589 - Pacific Highway Chatswood | Redevelopment | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| 88 St Leonards Mixed Use Developmeny | St Leonards | Apartments | Complete |
| 448-460 Pacific Highway Mixed Use Development | 460 - Pacific Highway St Leonards | Apartments | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| North Sydney Commercial Centre Potential Development | North Sydney | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Nicholson Place Build-To-Rent Apartments | St Leonards | Apartments | Site clearing |
Between releases
What we're watching in this region
These considerations carry material weight in this forecast. Each is a deliberate judgement, and each is monitored between releases.
Our position: the assumed construction rate in Chatswood follows a pattern already seen pre-2021 in St Leonards, Macquarie Park and North Sydney, so it isn't without precedent in Sydney. It is a major step up on Chatswood's own historical delivery.
What we monitor: whether these developments actually start coming online at the assumed pace before treating it as confirmed.
An independent read of this region
The state government's own projection for this SA4 only extends to 2041, so the comparison is at 2041, not 2046.
| Forecast | 2041 population | Vintage | Difference | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Forecasting Program | 495,638 | Aug 2026 | baseline | Built from LGA-level capacity and delivery rates across the six councils. |
| NSW Government (DPHI) | 509,329 | 2041 projection | −13,691 (−2.7%) | A modest net downward revision overall: Ku-ring-gai (−11.2%) and Hornsby (part) (−10.2%) pull the total down further than Willoughby (+15.9%) and North Sydney (+1.7%) pull it up. |
Who prepared this forecast
Places covered by this forecast
Every suburb and locality across these six council areas is forecast inside this region. Each is forecast at small-area level, and any combination of them can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Chatswood
- Crows Nest
- St Leonards
- Wollstonecraft
- Waverton
- Milsons Point
- Neutral Bay
- Cremorne
- Cammeray
- Mosman
- Gordon
- Killara
- Lindfield
- Roseville
- Turramurra
- Hornsby
Forecasts for an individual suburb, or for any catchment you draw, come through Placemaker or a conversation with our consultants.
Common questions about the forecast for Sydney – North Sydney and Hornsby
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 683 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.