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Population and housing forecast for Sydney – South West
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Sydney – South West, which covers parts of the Liverpool, Fairfield and Camden council areas, including Liverpool, Fairfield, Cabramatta, Edmondson Park, Leppington, Oran Park and Badgerys Creek.
- Region
- Sydney – South West · SA4 127
- Councils
- Camden (part), Fairfield (part), Liverpool (part), Penrith (part), Sutherland (part)
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 11/04/2024
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Fairfield
- Wetherill Park
- Cabramatta
- Bonnyrigg
- Liverpool
- Prestons
- Edmondson Park
- Austral
- Leppington
- Gregory Hills
- Oran Park
- Badgerys Creek
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.42m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionSydney – South West+264,16710.9% of New South Wales' growth2021.2022.1.1.1 · Apr 2024
- Below the region34 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
476,152
Population, 2021
740,319
Population, 2046
+264,167
Total growth to 2046
+103,754
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 476,152 | — | 155,783 | — | 21.1 | 66.0 | 12.9 |
| 2026 | 526,366 | +50,214 | 171,851 | +16,068 | 20.0 | 65.7 | 14.3 |
| 2031 | 575,691 | +49,325 | 190,746 | +18,895 | 19.0 | 65.6 | 15.4 |
| 2036 | 627,225 | +51,534 | 211,664 | +20,918 | 18.5 | 65.4 | 16.0 |
| 2041 | 682,341 | +55,116 | 234,603 | +22,939 | 18.4 | 65.3 | 16.3 |
| 2046 | 740,319 | +57,978 | 259,537 | +24,934 | 18.4 | 65.2 | 16.4 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Bringelly – Green Valley | 62.8% | |
| Fairfield | 19.8% | |
| Liverpool | 37.0% | |
| Sydney – South West total | 49.9% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 1,141 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Sydney Aerotropolis | 43 Kelvin Park Drive BRINGELLY | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Western Sydney Aerotropolis | 43 Kelvin Park Drive BRINGELLY | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Eq Riverside (Site E | Promontory Way | Redevelopment | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Western Sydney Aerotropolis | 145 Badgerys Creek Road BRINGELLY | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct | Draft Stage | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 65 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Liverpool
- Oran Park
- Austral
- Cabramatta
- Fairfield
- Edmondson Park
- Leppington
- Casula
- Prestons
- Bossley Park
- Smithfield
- Fairfield West
- Green Valley
- Canley Heights
- Moorebank
- Gregory Hills
- Hinchinbrook
- Mount Pritchard
- Canley Vale
- Edensor Park
- + 45 more
Plus 45 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Sydney – South West
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 1,141 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.