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Population and housing forecast for Sydney – Blacktown
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Sydney – Blacktown, which covers the Blacktown council area, including Blacktown, Seven Hills, Mount Druitt, Rooty Hill, Quakers Hill, Marsden Park, Schofields and Riverstone.
- Region
- Sydney – Blacktown · SA4 116
- Councils
- Blacktown, Cumberland (part), Hawkesbury (part), Parramatta (part), The Hills (part)
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 12/06/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Blacktown
- Seven Hills
- Toongabbie
- Kings Langley
- Doonside
- Rooty Hill
- Mount Druitt
- Quakers Hill
- Stanhope Gardens
- Marsden Park
- Schofields
- Riverstone
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionSydney – Blacktown+171,4787.9% of New South Wales' growth2021.2024.3.1.2 · Jun 2026
- Below the region24 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
404,175
Population, 2021
575,653
Population, 2046
+171,478
Total growth to 2046
+72,015
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 404,175 | — | 135,433 | — | 22.9 | 66.4 | 10.7 |
| 2026 | 457,359 | +53,184 | 151,354 | +15,921 | 21.4 | 67.1 | 11.5 |
| 2031 | 490,683 | +33,324 | 165,862 | +14,508 | 20.0 | 67.3 | 12.7 |
| 2036 | 522,270 | +31,587 | 180,984 | +15,122 | 19.2 | 67.0 | 13.7 |
| 2041 | 549,850 | +27,580 | 194,967 | +13,983 | 18.9 | 66.5 | 14.5 |
| 2046 | 575,653 | +25,803 | 207,448 | +12,481 | 18.8 | 65.8 | 15.4 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Blacktown | 16.7% | |
| Blacktown – North | 78.6% | |
| Mount Druitt | 9.6% | |
| Sydney – Blacktown total | 36.6% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 582 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Schofields Precinct (Proposed) | 43- Durham Road SCHOFIELDS | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| 14 Schofields Road, Schofields | SCHOFIELDS | Apartments | Approved |
| Allawah - Carinya - Balmoral Street Residential Potential (R4) | 28-32 Carinya Street BLACKTOWN | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| 43-53 Cudgegong Road, Rouse Hill | 43 Cudgegong Road TALLAWONG | Apartments | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Newpark Estate - The Greens | 32- Planigale Street MELONBA | Greenfield | Under construction |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 51 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Blacktown
- Quakers Hill
- Schofields
- Seven Hills
- Marsden Park
- The Ponds
- Mount Druitt
- Toongabbie
- Rooty Hill
- Glenwood
- Doonside
- Riverstone
- Tallawong
- Melonba
- Kellyville Ridge
- Plumpton
- Kings Langley
- Stanhope Gardens
- Lalor Park
- Marayong
- + 31 more
Plus 31 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Sydney – Blacktown
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 582 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.