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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Sydney – Northern Beaches
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Sydney – Northern Beaches, which covers the Northern Beaches council area, with urban centres including Manly, Dee Why and Mona Vale, and suburbs such as Brookvale, Frenchs Forest, Narrabeen, Avalon Beach and Palm Beach.
- Region
- Sydney – Northern Beaches · SA4 122
- Councils
- Northern Beaches
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 10/07/2024
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Manly
- Balgowlah
- Freshwater
- Brookvale
- Dee Why
- Collaroy
- Narrabeen
- Frenchs Forest
- Belrose
- Mona Vale
- Avalon Beach
- Palm Beach
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.42m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionSydney – Northern Beaches+38,7141.6% of New South Wales' growth2021.2022.1.1.1 · Jul 2024
- Below the region19 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
264,481
Population, 2021
303,195
Population, 2046
+38,714
Total growth to 2046
+14,702
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 264,481 | — | 105,017 | — | 18.7 | 63.5 | 17.8 |
| 2026 | 274,685 | +10,204 | 107,483 | +2,466 | 17.1 | 64.0 | 18.9 |
| 2031 | 282,585 | +7,900 | 110,629 | +3,146 | 16.0 | 63.5 | 20.5 |
| 2036 | 290,181 | +7,596 | 113,736 | +3,107 | 15.9 | 62.2 | 21.9 |
| 2041 | 297,086 | +6,905 | 116,753 | +3,017 | 16.0 | 60.9 | 23.1 |
| 2046 | 303,195 | +6,109 | 119,719 | +2,966 | 16.3 | 59.9 | 23.7 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Manly | 95.5% | |
| Pittwater | 86.9% | |
| Warringah | 93.3% | |
| Sydney – Northern Beaches total | 92.7% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 131 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 Frenchs Forest Road Frenchs Forest | 109 Frenchs Forest Road FRENCHS FOREST | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| 8-18 Ann Street Frenchs Forest | 8-18 Ann Street FRENCHS FOREST | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| 124 Frenchs Forest Road Frenchs Forest | 124 Frenchs Forest Road FRENCHS FOREST | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Lizard Rock Development Site | Morgan Road | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Brookvale Structure Plan Mixed Use | Roger Street | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 53 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Dee Why
- Manly
- Frenchs Forest
- Mona Vale
- Avalon Beach
- Newport
- Freshwater
- Warriewood
- Belrose
- Forestville
- Cromer
- Narrabeen
- Balgowlah
- Collaroy
- Beacon Hill
- Seaforth
- Allambie Heights
- Narraweena
- Manly Vale
- Fairlight
- + 33 more
Plus 33 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Sydney – Northern Beaches
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 131 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.