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Population and housing forecast for Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven, which covers parts of the Wingecarribee and Shoalhaven council areas, including Bowral, Mittagong and Moss Vale, Nowra, Ulladulla and the coastal townships that surround the Jervis Bay Territory.
- Region
- Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven · SA4 114
- Councils
- Kiama (part), Shoalhaven (part), Wingecarribee (part)
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 29/05/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Bowral
- Mittagong
- Moss Vale
- Berrima
- Bundanoon
- Berry
- Nowra
- Bomaderry
- Huskisson
- Vincentia
- Sussex Inlet
- Ulladulla
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionSouthern Highlands and Shoalhaven+37,3721.7% of New South Wales' growth2021.2024.3.1.2 · May 2026
- Below the region18 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
160,808
Population, 2021
198,180
Population, 2046
+37,372
Total growth to 2046
+18,846
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 160,808 | — | 82,083 | — | 16.6 | 56.1 | 27.3 |
| 2026 | 168,141 | +7,333 | 85,438 | +3,355 | 15.6 | 54.9 | 29.4 |
| 2031 | 176,497 | +8,356 | 89,408 | +3,970 | 15.4 | 52.7 | 31.9 |
| 2036 | 184,576 | +8,079 | 94,161 | +4,753 | 15.5 | 51.5 | 33.0 |
| 2041 | 191,658 | +7,082 | 98,031 | +3,870 | 15.5 | 50.8 | 33.7 |
| 2046 | 198,180 | +6,522 | 100,929 | +2,898 | 15.4 | 50.7 | 33.9 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Shoalhaven | 55.8% | |
| Southern Highlands | 68.6% | |
| Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven total | 59.0% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 295 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moss Vale Road North Ura | 66 Bells Lane | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Moss Vale Road North Ura | 66 Bells Lane | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Moss Vale Road North Ura | 66 Bells Lane | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Mandalay Avenue Development | Manadalay Avenue | Redevelopment | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Bowral South Masterplan | Bowral | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 178 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Bowral
- Nowra
- Moss Vale
- Sanctuary Point
- Ulladulla
- Bomaderry
- Mittagong
- North Nowra
- Worrigee
- Sussex Inlet
- Vincentia
- South Nowra
- St Georges Basin
- Shoalhaven Heads
- Berry
- Culburra Beach
- Burradoo
- Bundanoon
- Hill Top (Wingecarribee - NSW)
- Mollymook Beach
- + 158 more
Plus 158 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 295 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.