GOVERNMENT TOOLS
CONSULTING
National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Sydney – Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Sydney – Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury, which covers parts of The Hills, Hawkesbury and Hornsby council areas, including Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill, Kellyville, Rouse Hill, Box Hill, Cherrybrook, Dural, Pitt Town, Kurrajong and Wisemans Ferry.
- Region
- Sydney – Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury · SA4 115
- Councils
- Blue Mountains (part), Hawkesbury (part), Hornsby (part), The Hills (part)
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 29/10/2024
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Baulkham Hills
- Castle Hill
- Bella Vista
- Kellyville
- Rouse Hill
- Box Hill
- Cherrybrook
- Dural
- Galston
- Pitt Town
- Kurrajong
- Wisemans Ferry
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNew South Wales+2.42m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionSydney – Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury+152,7976.3% of New South Wales' growth2021.2022.1.1.2 · Oct 2024
- Below the region20 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
New South Wales' share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of New South Wales is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
265,266
Population, 2021
418,063
Population, 2046
+152,797
Total growth to 2046
+60,630
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 265,266 | — | 89,400 | — | 20.7 | 63.7 | 15.7 |
| 2026 | 295,718 | +30,452 | 103,074 | +13,674 | 19.4 | 64.2 | 16.4 |
| 2031 | 324,979 | +29,261 | 113,864 | +10,790 | 18.0 | 65.1 | 16.8 |
| 2036 | 355,589 | +30,610 | 125,507 | +11,643 | 17.5 | 65.5 | 17.0 |
| 2041 | 386,560 | +30,971 | 137,534 | +12,027 | 17.4 | 65.4 | 17.2 |
| 2046 | 418,063 | +31,503 | 150,030 | +12,496 | 17.5 | 65.0 | 17.5 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Baulkham Hills | 75.1% | |
| Dural – Wisemans Ferry | 76.1% | |
| Hawkesbury | 80.3% | |
| Rouse Hill – McGraths Hill | 86.8% | |
| Sydney – Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury total | 80.0% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 533 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rouse Hill Town Centre Northern Precinct | ROUSE HILL - BEAUMONT HILLS | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Hills Showground Precinct (High Density) | 54 Fishburn Crescent, Castle Hill | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Mccall Community Gardens Surrounds | BOX HILL - NELSON | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Hills Showground Precinct (High Density) | 1 Cadman Crescent, Castle Hill | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Skyview Castle Hill | 55 Old Castle Hill Road CASTLE HILL | Greenfield | Complete |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 83 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Castle Hill
- Baulkham Hills
- Kellyville
- Box Hill
- North Kellyville
- Cherrybrook
- Rouse Hill
- West Pennant Hills
- Beaumont Hills
- Bella Vista
- Dural (Hornsby - NSW)
- Norwest
- Gables
- Glenhaven
- Kenthurst
- Pitt Town
- Glenorie
- Galston
- Kurrajong
- Wilberforce
- + 63 more
Plus 63 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Sydney – Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 533 development sites assessed in this region alone.
500+
organisations across Australia trust Informed Decisions for data and insights
15,000+
suburbs forecast, covering every part of Australia
A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.