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Population forecast for Queensland
Our 2025 population forecast for Queensland, and the starting point for the forecasts of its 19 regions.
- State
- Queensland
- Regions
- 19, each forecast individually
- Base
- ABS ERP June 2024
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
The forecast
5,215,814
Population, 2021
7,383,144
Population, 2046
+2,167,330
Total growth to 2046
25.3%
Share of national growth
+915,386
Additional dwellings
21.2%
Aged 65 and over, 2046
19
Regions forecast individually
Age structure
| Age group | 2021 | 2046 | Change, percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aged 0–14 | 19.0% | 16.9% | −2.1 |
| Aged 15–64 | 64.5% | 61.9% | −2.6 |
| Aged 65 and over | 16.6% | 21.2% | +4.6 |
Queensland's population, 2021 to 2046
Our 2025 forecast against the Queensland Government's medium series, at 30 June.
- Our forecast · 7.38m (our forecast)
- Queensland Government · 7.28m (comparison)
Source: Informed Decisions, National Forecasting Program, 2025 forecast. 2021 to 2024 are ABS estimated resident population. Comparison: Queensland Government population projections, 2025 edition, medium series, Queensland Government Statistician's Office.
+ Show the data− Hide the data
| Year | Our forecast | Queensland Government |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 5.22m | 5.22m |
| 2026 | 5.78m | 5.76m |
| 2031 | 6.21m | 6.17m |
| 2036 | 6.62m | 6.55m |
| 2041 | 7.01m | 6.92m |
| 2046 | 7.38m | 7.28m |
Download the full series (CSV)
Informed Decisions, National Forecasting Program, 2025 forecast
Where Queensland sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: StateQueensland+2.17m to 204625.3% of national growth2025 forecast
- Below the state19 regions, forecast individuallyThe largest growth is forecast for Ipswich. Each region carries its own release.
Queensland's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. How it is distributed inside Queensland is built from development assessed on the ground, region by region.
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Net overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State (this page)
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing and planning policy
- Economic conditions
- Region
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
- Local capacity
Comparison with the Queensland Government population projections
For a lot of planning work the state's own projection is the default number. In Queensland that is the Queensland Government population projections, published by the Queensland Government Statistician's Office, with the 2025 edition the current release. At 2046 its medium series puts the state at 7.28 million people. We forecast 7.38 million, about 104,000 more, or 1.4% above. Queensland is the one state where our forecast sits above the government's. Both start from the same 2021 population, so the whole of that difference is a different view of the twenty-five years in between.
Why our forecast is different
- Independent of any planning position or housing target
- Every development site assessed on its own, with a view on when it will be built
- Regions monitored and continually updated
- Population and dwellings from the same model
- Single year of age and sex, for every year
- Small area detail, down to SA1 and suburb
- One forecast we stand behind, not a range to choose between
- Explicit about what is driving growth in each region
How the two compare
| Our forecast | Queensland Government | |
|---|---|---|
| Latest release | 2025 forecast, regions monitored and continually updated | 2025 |
| Forecast horizon | 2046 | 2046 for local areas, 2071 for the state |
| Smallest area published | SA1 and suburb | SA2 |
| Scenarios published | One | Three (low, medium and high) |
Sources: Informed Decisions, National Forecasting Program, 2025 forecast; Queensland Government population projections, 2025 edition, medium series, Queensland Government Statistician's Office.
Components of population change, 2021 to 2046
| Component | 2021 to 2046 |
|---|---|
| Births | +1,801,082 |
| Deaths | −1,272,186 |
| Natural increase | +528,896 |
| Net overseas migration | +1,009,524 |
| Net interstate migration | +628,909 |
| Total change | +2,167,330 |
Regional forecasts for Queensland
| Region | Population, 2021 | Population, 2046 | Growth to 2046 | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane – East | 243,445 | 302,338 | +58,893 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Aug 2025 |
| Brisbane – North | 227,782 | 281,690 | +53,908 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Aug 2025 |
| Brisbane – South | 377,159 | 518,779 | +141,620 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jun 2025 |
| Brisbane – West | 191,924 | 225,634 | +33,710 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jun 2025 |
| Brisbane Inner City | 297,656 | 469,011 | +171,355 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Aug 2025 |
| Cairns | 257,065 | 329,239 | +72,174 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Feb 2026 |
| Central Queensland | 231,029 | 275,132 | +44,103 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Aug 2025 |
| Darling Downs – Maranoa | 130,036 | 142,209 | +12,173 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Oct 2025 |
| Gold Coast | 649,491 | 902,946 | +253,455 | 2021.2024.3.1.2 · Jun 2025 |
| Ipswich | 373,629 | 711,379 | +337,750 | 2021.2024.3.1.2 · Aug 2025 |
| Logan – Beaudesert | 365,586 | 621,328 | +255,742 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Dec 2025 |
| Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday | 183,209 | 232,432 | +49,223 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Oct 2025 |
| Moreton Bay – North | 268,977 | 471,985 | +203,008 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jul 2025 |
| Moreton Bay – South | 221,556 | 289,579 | +68,023 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jul 2025 |
| Queensland – Outback | 81,605 | 85,405 | +3,800 | 2021.2024.3.1.2 · Jan 2026 |
| Sunshine Coast | 403,508 | 605,447 | +201,939 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jun 2025 |
| Toowoomba | 164,082 | 209,505 | +45,423 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Sep 2025 |
| Townsville | 237,383 | 306,496 | +69,113 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Sep 2025 |
| Wide Bay | 310,692 | 402,629 | +91,937 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Dec 2025 |
Our forecasting team
Common questions about the forecast for Queensland
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters.
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organisations across Australia trust Informed Decisions for data and insights
15,000+
suburbs forecast, covering every part of Australia
A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker is our mapping and reporting platform for population, housing and development. Draw any catchment in Queensland and get the forecast for it, by single year, with age and sex detail and the development pipeline behind it.
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