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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Queensland – Outback
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Queensland – Outback, which covers western Queensland and the far north up to the Torres Strait, taking in towns such as Mount Isa, Cloncurry, Longreach, Charleville, Cooktown and Thursday Island.
- Region
- Queensland – Outback · SA4 315
- Councils
- Aurukun, Barcaldine, Barcoo, Blackall Tambo, Boulia, Bulloo, Burke, Carpentaria, Cloncurry, Cook, Croydon, Diamantina, Doomadgee, Douglas (part), Etheridge, Flinders (Qld), Hope Vale, Kowanyama, Lockhart River, Longreach, Mapoon, Mareeba (part), McKinlay, Mornington, Mount Isa, Murweh, Napranum, Northern Peninsula Area, Paroo, Pormpuraaw, Quilpie, Richmond, Torres, Torres Strait Island, Weipa, Winton, Wujal Wujal
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 14/01/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Mount Isa
- Cloncurry
- Winton
- Hughenden
- Longreach
- Barcaldine
- Charleville
- Cunnamulla
- Normanton
- Cooktown
- Bamaga
- Thursday Island
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateQueensland+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionQueensland – Outback+3,8000.2% of Queensland's growth2021.2024.3.1.2 · Jan 2026
- Below the region18 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Queensland's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Queensland is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
81,605
Population, 2021
85,405
Population, 2046
+3,800
Total growth to 2046
+4,188
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 81,605 | — | 40,989 | — | 22.5 | 66.2 | 11.3 |
| 2026 | 83,141 | +1,536 | 41,615 | +626 | 21.3 | 66.0 | 12.7 |
| 2031 | 83,939 | +798 | 42,499 | +884 | 20.7 | 66.0 | 13.3 |
| 2036 | 84,570 | +631 | 43,404 | +905 | 21.2 | 65.0 | 13.8 |
| 2041 | 85,098 | +528 | 44,289 | +885 | 21.8 | 64.3 | 13.9 |
| 2046 | 85,405 | +307 | 45,177 | +888 | 21.8 | 64.6 | 13.6 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Far North | 7.2% | |
| Outback – North | 6.5% | |
| Outback – South | 12.8% | |
| Queensland – Outback total | 8.1% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 66 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gildeport Development | HEALY | Greenfield | Approved |
| Aurora Estate Remainder (Residential Activation Fund) | CHARLEVILLE | Greenfield | Approved |
| Longreach Residential Activation Fund Future Urban | Longreach | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Lakeland Masterplan | Lakeland | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Boulia Future Development | BOULIA | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 283 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Cloncurry
- Longreach
- Charleville
- Cooktown
- Thursday Island
- Pioneer
- Rocky Point (Weipa - Qld)
- Sunset
- Townview
- Mornington
- Healy
- Soldiers Hill
- Barcaldine
- Parkside
- Normanton
- Doomadgee
- Blackall
- Bamaga
- Cunnamulla
- Aurukun
- + 263 more
Plus 263 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Queensland – Outback
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 66 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.