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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Moreton Bay – North
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Moreton Bay – North, which covers the northern half of the Moreton Bay council area, from the Redcliffe Peninsula to Caboolture and Elimbah, along with Bribie Island, Moreton Island and the Kilcoy area of Somerset.
- Region
- Moreton Bay – North · SA4 313
- Councils
- Brisbane (part), Moreton Bay (part), Somerset (part), Sunshine Coast (part)
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 07/07/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Redcliffe
- Kippa-Ring
- Deception Bay
- Burpengary
- Narangba
- Morayfield
- Caboolture
- Upper Caboolture
- Wamuran
- Elimbah
- Bongaree
- Kilcoy
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateQueensland+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionMoreton Bay – North+203,0089.4% of Queensland's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jul 2025
- Below the region22 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Queensland's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Queensland is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
268,977
Population, 2021
471,985
Population, 2046
+203,008
Total growth to 2046
+83,561
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 268,977 | — | 110,575 | — | 18.3 | 60.3 | 21.4 |
| 2026 | 310,247 | +41,270 | 122,768 | +12,193 | 16.7 | 60.5 | 22.8 |
| 2031 | 351,152 | +40,905 | 139,416 | +16,648 | 15.7 | 59.5 | 24.7 |
| 2036 | 391,998 | +40,846 | 157,500 | +18,084 | 15.7 | 58.1 | 26.3 |
| 2041 | 432,402 | +40,404 | 175,816 | +18,316 | 15.7 | 56.8 | 27.4 |
| 2046 | 471,985 | +39,583 | 194,136 | +18,320 | 15.6 | 56.5 | 27.9 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Bribie – Beachmere | 83.2% | |
| Caboolture | 63.8% | |
| Caboolture Hinterland | 69.1% | |
| Narangba – Burpengary | 89.6% | |
| Redcliffe | 55.1% | |
| Moreton Bay – North total | 71.0% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 638 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waraba Pda | Upper Caboolture | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Waraba Pda | Upper Caboolture | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Waraba Pda | 649 Old North Road Bellmere | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Morayfield South Emerging Community | 11-206 Jean Road Morayfield | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| North Harbour Marina & Canal Estate Pda | 190 Farry Road, Burpengary East | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 77 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Caboolture
- Morayfield
- Narangba
- Deception Bay
- Burpengary
- Burpengary East
- Redcliffe
- Scarborough
- Kippa-Ring
- Caboolture South
- Clontarf (Moreton Bay - Qld)
- Bongaree
- Newport
- Rothwell
- Margate
- Banksia Beach
- Bellmere
- Upper Caboolture
- Ningi
- Beachmere
- + 57 more
Plus 57 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Moreton Bay – North
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 638 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.