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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Sunshine Coast
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Sunshine Coast, which covers Noosa and part of the Sunshine Coast council area, running along the coast from Golden Beach to Sunshine Beach and inland to the Glass House Mountains, Beerwah, Nambour and Cooroy.
- Region
- Sunshine Coast · SA4 316
- Councils
- Noosa, Sunshine Coast (part)
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 25/06/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Caloundra
- Mooloolaba
- Maroochydore
- Buderim
- Coolum Beach
- Noosa Heads
- Tewantin
- Cooroy
- Nambour
- Maleny
- Beerwah
- Glass House Mountains
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateQueensland+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionSunshine Coast+201,9399.3% of Queensland's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jun 2025
- Below the region34 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Queensland's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Queensland is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
403,508
Population, 2021
605,447
Population, 2046
+201,939
Total growth to 2046
+87,635
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 403,508 | — | 177,204 | — | 17.3 | 60.7 | 22.1 |
| 2026 | 454,051 | +50,543 | 193,465 | +16,261 | 16.1 | 60.3 | 23.7 |
| 2031 | 496,940 | +42,889 | 212,869 | +19,404 | 15.1 | 59.2 | 25.7 |
| 2036 | 537,096 | +40,156 | 231,920 | +19,051 | 14.8 | 57.9 | 27.4 |
| 2041 | 573,464 | +36,368 | 249,240 | +17,320 | 14.8 | 56.7 | 28.6 |
| 2046 | 605,447 | +31,983 | 264,839 | +15,599 | 14.7 | 56.2 | 29.1 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Buderim | 78.3% | |
| Caloundra | 93.5% | |
| Maroochy | 91.9% | |
| Nambour | 90.4% | |
| Noosa | 77.8% | |
| Noosa Hinterland | 76.6% | |
| Sunshine Coast Hinterland | 62.3% | |
| Sunshine Coast total | 76.0% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 701 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beerwah East Stage 1 | LANDSBOROUGH | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Beerwah East Stage 1 | LANDSBOROUGH | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Beerwah East Stage 1 | LANDSBOROUGH | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Beerwah East Stage 1 | LANDSBOROUGH | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Banya | CALOUNDRA - WEST | Greenfield | Under construction |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 138 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Buderim
- Maroochydore
- Palmview
- Nambour
- Sippy Downs
- Mountain Creek
- Little Mountain
- Tewantin
- Bli Bli
- Peregian Springs
- Coolum Beach
- Bells Creek
- Noosaville
- Mooloolaba
- Beerwah
- Caloundra West
- Palmwoods
- Pelican Waters
- Currimundi
- Golden Beach
- + 118 more
Plus 118 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Sunshine Coast
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 701 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.