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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Wide Bay
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Wide Bay, which sits north of Noosa and covers the Bundaberg, Fraser Coast, Gympie, South Burnett, North Burnett and Cherbourg council areas, with towns including Bundaberg, Maryborough, Gympie, Kingaroy and Gayndah.
- Region
- Wide Bay · SA4 319
- Councils
- Bundaberg, Cherbourg, Fraser Coast, Gympie, North Burnett, South Burnett
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 02/12/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Bundaberg Central
- Bargara
- Childers
- Maryborough
- Pialba
- Urangan
- Tin Can Bay
- Rainbow Beach
- Gympie
- Kingaroy
- Nanango
- Gayndah
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateQueensland+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionWide Bay+91,9374.2% of Queensland's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Dec 2025
- Below the region35 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Queensland's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Queensland is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
310,692
Population, 2021
402,629
Population, 2046
+91,937
Total growth to 2046
+42,747
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 310,692 | — | 145,030 | — | 16.3 | 56.8 | 26.8 |
| 2026 | 340,252 | +29,560 | 151,836 | +6,806 | 14.9 | 55.8 | 29.2 |
| 2031 | 357,980 | +17,728 | 161,169 | +9,333 | 14.4 | 53.7 | 31.9 |
| 2036 | 374,280 | +16,300 | 170,217 | +9,048 | 14.7 | 51.9 | 33.4 |
| 2041 | 389,531 | +15,251 | 179,088 | +8,871 | 15.0 | 50.9 | 34.1 |
| 2046 | 402,629 | +13,098 | 187,777 | +8,689 | 14.9 | 51.1 | 34.0 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Bundaberg | 39.6% | |
| Burnett | 69.5% | |
| Gympie – Cooloola | 63.8% | |
| Hervey Bay | 52.8% | |
| Maryborough | 30.2% | |
| Wide Bay total | 45.6% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 382 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikenbah And Dundowran Structure Plan | 8 West Spring Way NIKENBAH | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Nikenbah And Dundowran Structure Plan | 9 Lower Mountain Road NIKENBAH | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Nikenbah And Dundowran Structure Plan | 53-129 Chapel Road NIKENBAH | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Maryborough Emerging Communities Potential Development | Maryborough | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Coral Cove Estate Remainder | 269 Back Windermere Road INNES PARK | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 506 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Maryborough
- Urangan
- Gympie
- Kingaroy
- Bargara
- Urraween
- Southside
- Torquay
- Tinana
- Point Vernon
- Kawungan
- Bundaberg North
- Branyan
- Avenell Heights
- Avoca
- Eli Waters
- Pialba
- Kepnock
- Scarness
- Nanango
- + 486 more
Plus 486 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Wide Bay
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 382 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.