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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Brisbane – East
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Brisbane – East, which covers the eastern part of the City of Brisbane, including Wynnum and Manly, and all of Redland City, stretching along the coast to Cleveland and Redland Bay and out to North Stradbroke Island.
- Region
- Brisbane – East · SA4 301
- Councils
- Brisbane (part), Redland
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 05/08/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Wynnum
- Manly
- Tingalpa
- Capalaba
- Birkdale
- Wellington Point
- Cleveland
- Alexandra Hills
- Thornlands
- Victoria Point
- Redland Bay
- North Stradbroke Island
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateQueensland+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionBrisbane – East+58,8932.7% of Queensland's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Aug 2025
- Below the region22 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Queensland's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Queensland is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
243,445
Population, 2021
302,338
Population, 2046
+58,893
Total growth to 2046
+25,382
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 243,445 | — | 96,738 | — | 18.8 | 62.5 | 18.7 |
| 2026 | 262,333 | +18,888 | 101,680 | +4,942 | 17.3 | 62.3 | 20.4 |
| 2031 | 274,816 | +12,483 | 107,085 | +5,405 | 16.5 | 61.1 | 22.3 |
| 2036 | 285,840 | +11,024 | 112,559 | +5,474 | 16.5 | 59.8 | 23.7 |
| 2041 | 295,094 | +9,254 | 117,730 | +5,171 | 16.6 | 58.8 | 24.6 |
| 2046 | 302,338 | +7,244 | 122,120 | +4,390 | 16.7 | 58.3 | 25.0 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Capalaba | 29.0% | |
| Cleveland – Stradbroke | 75.2% | |
| Wynnum – Manly | 78.9% | |
| Brisbane – East total | 71.1% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 320 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Thornlands Pda Precinct 2 | 141-153 Springacre Road THORNLANDS | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Southern Thornlands Pda Precinct 1 | 62-138 Springacre Road | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Shoreline - Redland Bay | 275-385 Serpentine Creek Road REDLAND BAY | Greenfield | Under construction |
| Cleveland Potential Development | Cleveland | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Wynnum Potential Development | Wynnum | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 38 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Thornlands
- Redland Bay
- Capalaba
- Victoria Point
- Alexandra Hills
- Cleveland
- Birkdale
- Wynnum
- Wynnum West
- Wellington Point
- Manly West
- Wakerley
- Tingalpa
- Mount Cotton
- Ormiston
- Murarrie
- Belmont
- Manly
- Russell Island
- Thorneside
- + 18 more
Plus 18 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Brisbane – East
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 320 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.