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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Darling Downs – Maranoa
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Darling Downs – Maranoa, which covers the Southern Downs, Goondiwindi, Balonne and Maranoa council areas in southern Queensland, part of Western Downs and the rural parts of Toowoomba, with towns including Warwick, Stanthorpe, Dalby and Roma.
- Region
- Darling Downs – Maranoa · SA4 307
- Councils
- Balonne, Goondiwindi, Maranoa, Southern Downs, Toowoomba (part), Western Downs (part)
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 17/10/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Warwick
- Stanthorpe
- Goondiwindi
- St George
- Dalby
- Chinchilla
- Miles
- Tara
- Roma
- Pittsworth
- Oakey
- Crows Nest
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateQueensland+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionDarling Downs – Maranoa+12,1730.6% of Queensland's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Oct 2025
- Below the region19 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Queensland's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Queensland is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
130,036
Population, 2021
142,209
Population, 2046
+12,173
Total growth to 2046
+7,914
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 130,036 | — | 60,680 | — | 19.8 | 59.4 | 20.8 |
| 2026 | 135,652 | +5,616 | 61,989 | +1,309 | 18.4 | 58.7 | 22.9 |
| 2031 | 137,989 | +2,337 | 63,686 | +1,697 | 17.7 | 57.0 | 25.3 |
| 2036 | 139,717 | +1,728 | 65,400 | +1,714 | 18.1 | 55.0 | 26.9 |
| 2041 | 141,086 | +1,369 | 67,013 | +1,613 | 18.4 | 53.9 | 27.7 |
| 2046 | 142,209 | +1,123 | 68,594 | +1,581 | 18.3 | 54.1 | 27.6 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Darling Downs – East | 18.8% | |
| Darling Downs (West) – Maranoa | 6.8% | |
| Granite Belt | 14.6% | |
| Darling Downs – Maranoa total | 12.3% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 249 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parkland Estate - Future Stages | 41 Naomi Drive Crows Nest | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| 138-172 Hamlyn Road, Oakey | 174 - 180 Hamlyn Road Oakey | Greenfield | Approved |
| Sovereign Downs Estate - Mid-Stages Release | 8 Mulcahy Street Rosenthal Heights | Greenfield | Marketing |
| The Avenues Stanthorpe Estate - Future Stages | 45 Maugeri Lane STANTHORPE | Greenfield | Approved |
| Griffith Estate | 13 Derby Drive Rosenthal Heights | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 491 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Dalby
- Warwick
- Chinchilla
- Roma
- Goondiwindi
- Stanthorpe
- Oakey
- Pittsworth
- St George
- Rosenthal Heights
- Crows Nest
- Tara
- Miles
- Millmerran
- Clifton
- Allora
- Yarraman
- Mitchell
- Jandowae
- Goombungee
- + 471 more
Plus 471 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Darling Downs – Maranoa
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 249 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.