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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Cairns
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Cairns, which covers the Cairns, Cassowary Coast, Tablelands and Yarrabah council areas in Far North Queensland, and parts of Douglas and Mareeba, including Cairns, Port Douglas, Mareeba, Atherton, Innisfail and Tully.
- Region
- Cairns · SA4 306
- Councils
- Cairns, Cassowary Coast, Douglas (part), Mareeba (part), Tablelands, Yarrabah
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 17/02/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Cairns City
- Palm Cove
- Port Douglas
- Mossman
- Kuranda
- Yarrabah
- Gordonvale
- Mareeba
- Atherton
- Innisfail
- Tully
- Mission Beach
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateQueensland+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionCairns+72,1743.3% of Queensland's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Feb 2026
- Below the region33 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Queensland's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Queensland is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
257,065
Population, 2021
329,239
Population, 2046
+72,174
Total growth to 2046
+29,499
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 257,065 | — | 115,389 | — | 18.8 | 63.7 | 17.5 |
| 2026 | 276,016 | +18,951 | 119,208 | +3,819 | 17.0 | 63.4 | 19.6 |
| 2031 | 290,085 | +14,069 | 125,844 | +6,636 | 16.1 | 62.3 | 21.6 |
| 2036 | 304,135 | +14,050 | 132,792 | +6,948 | 16.1 | 60.8 | 23.0 |
| 2041 | 317,131 | +12,996 | 138,983 | +6,191 | 16.5 | 59.8 | 23.7 |
| 2046 | 329,239 | +12,108 | 144,888 | +5,905 | 16.6 | 59.7 | 23.7 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Cairns – North | 99.4% | |
| Cairns – South | 44.3% | |
| Innisfail – Cassowary Coast | 35.4% | |
| Port Douglas – Daintree | 26.2% | |
| Tablelands (East) – Kuranda | 54.1% | |
| Cairns total | 48.1% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 277 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Peter Pda | Mount Peter | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Draper Road Development | Draper Road | Greenfield | Marketing |
| Cairns C3 Development | 1-3 Sheridan Street & 2-4 Kenny Street | Apartments | Approved |
| Edenbrook Estate | Gordonvale - Trinity | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Mount Peter Pda | Gordonvale - Trinity | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 278 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Mareeba
- Edmonton
- Redlynch
- Bentley Park
- Mount Sheridan
- Atherton
- Trinity Beach
- Smithfield
- Gordonvale
- Mooroobool
- Kewarra Beach
- Manoora
- Cairns North
- Brinsmead
- Manunda
- Woree
- White Rock (Cairns - Qld)
- Earlville
- Whitfield
- Bayview Heights
- + 258 more
Plus 258 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Cairns
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 277 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.