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Population and housing forecast for Moreton Bay – South
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Moreton Bay – South, which covers the southern part of the Moreton Bay council area, bordering Brisbane's northernmost suburbs, from North Lakes and Petrie west to Dayboro and the Samford Valley.
- Region
- Moreton Bay – South · SA4 314
- Councils
- Moreton Bay (part)
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 14/07/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- North Lakes
- Mango Hill
- Kallangur
- Petrie
- Lawnton
- Strathpine
- Albany Creek
- Arana Hills
- Ferny Hills
- Samford Village
- Samford Valley
- Dayboro
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateQueensland+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionMoreton Bay – South+68,0233.1% of Queensland's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jul 2025
- Below the region15 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Queensland's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Queensland is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
221,556
Population, 2021
289,579
Population, 2046
+68,023
Total growth to 2046
+25,107
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 221,556 | — | 80,638 | — | 22.1 | 65.4 | 12.5 |
| 2026 | 242,636 | +21,080 | 86,196 | +5,558 | 20.1 | 66.1 | 13.8 |
| 2031 | 256,072 | +13,436 | 91,730 | +5,534 | 18.9 | 65.8 | 15.2 |
| 2036 | 269,498 | +13,426 | 97,249 | +5,519 | 18.6 | 65.0 | 16.5 |
| 2041 | 280,679 | +11,181 | 101,881 | +4,632 | 18.5 | 64.0 | 17.5 |
| 2046 | 289,579 | +8,900 | 105,745 | +3,864 | 18.5 | 63.5 | 18.1 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| North Lakes | 92.7% | |
| Strathpine | 93.8% | |
| The Hills District | 89.0% | |
| Moreton Bay – South total | 92.1% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 243 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Mill Mixed Use | PETRIE | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Dakabin Potential Development | Dakabin | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Anzac Avenue & Mango Hill Boulevard Mixed Use Development | MANGO HILL | Apartments | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Mango Hill Potential Development | Mango Hill | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Griffin Potential Development | Griffin | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 45 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- North Lakes
- Kallangur
- Mango Hill
- Albany Creek
- Griffin
- Warner
- Murrumba Downs
- Strathpine
- Bray Park
- Ferny Hills
- Petrie
- Eatons Hill
- Arana Hills
- Everton Hills
- Lawnton
- Dakabin
- Cashmere
- Joyner
- Brendale
- Samford Valley
- + 25 more
Plus 25 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Moreton Bay – South
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 243 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.