Insights

You are planning for growth. But will it be built? Your questions, answered

Planning reform keeps moving where housing growth can land. These are the points our panel came back to most often. Zoned capacity is not supply. In Shoalhaven, 47,171 theoretical dwellings came down to around 2,100 that were commercially feasible. Grattan Institute analysis puts Melbourne's zoned capacity near 600,000 homes, with about 110,000 of them feasible. Before you re-time capital, ask what was constraining growth before the reform: if it was planning, your timing changes, if it was demand, it probably does not. Lapsing development applications are the clearest local signal that feasibility has not arrived yet. Medium density parcels in Wyndham and Melton precinct plans are being delivered as aged care and childcare, not apartments, which leaves plans short on supply. Timing matters more than the total. Four Hunter Water scenarios spanned more than 13,000 dwellings and moved one precinct's start date from 2032 to 2041.