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Southern Melbourne & Peninsula
SA4s in region:
- Melbourne - Inner South
- Mornington Peninsula
Latest update: Melbourne - Inner South, August 2026 (version 2021.2024.3.1.1)
Mornington Peninsula: last published October 2024 (version 5.1.0)
Read forecast analysis and insights for the Southern Melbourne and Mornington Peninsula region from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.
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About
About the Southern Melbourne & Peninsula region
The Southern Melbourne region comprises two SA4s: Melbourne - Inner South and Mornington Peninsula. Together they are forecast to account for 6% of Victoria's total population growth between 2021 and 2046, of which Melbourne - Inner South contributes about 3.6%.
The Inner South SA4 is composed of established middle-ring Melbourne suburbs. Going from Malvern, Glen Iris & Caufield, ranging south all the way down to Carrum and Patterson Lakes, with most suburbs in between and along the coast. This SA4 contains the eastern portion of Stonnington Council, Glen Eira City Council, Bayside City Council and the majority of Kingston City Council. Housing opportunities within this SA4 is based upon strategic housing plans for increased densification around transit, and precinct structure plans stemming from the Suburban Rail Loop within the later half of the 2020s.
The Mornington Peninsula SA4 is the bottom of the comma curve of the land bordering the eastern portion of Port Phillip Bay, and consists of the outer edge of the urban greater Melbourne area in suburbs such as Frankston, smaller townships that have been integrated into the urban form, such as Rosebud and Dromana, and small rural settlements such as Hastings. This SA4 consists of two LGAs, Frankston City Council and the Mornington Peninsula Shire. Growth in this SA4 is focussed on the central Frankston area, and to a lesser extent, Mornington and Rosebud.
The significant character of the area with a large number of holiday houses and an agricultural base as well as the urbanised portion is not expected to significantly change.
Map image: via Google Map Data
Key findings
Melbourne - Inner South
Melbourne - Inner South is forecast to grow from 427,065 people in 2021 to 518,519 in 2046, an increase of 91,454 people. The region passes 500,000 residents in 2039. Meeting that growth requires an additional 46,053 dwellings.
Medium to long term housing capacity in this region has increased substantially since our last review, following the gazetting of the Train and Tram Activity Centres and their associated Housing Choice and Transport zones 1 and 2. Most of that capacity sits in existing activity centres where housing development is already under way to varying degrees, but the upzoning has widened the geographic spread of potential development and should streamline the processing of anticipated applications. We expect it to reinforce existing patterns of densification rather than open new corridors, and heritage overlays will continue to restrict densification in parts of McKinnon, Brighton and Malvern.
The main growth hotspots are the Housing Choice and Transport areas at Carnegie, Glen Huntly, Ormond and Moorabbin, together with Suburban Rail Loop development at Cheltenham.
The Cheltenham station leg of the Suburban Rail Loop is the other substantial source of medium to long term capacity in this SA4. As site investigations and establishment works continue, we expect the area to support the higher densities already seen at nearby Highett Common.
Melbourne - Inner South accounts for about 3.6% of Victoria's forecast population growth to 2046, a similar share to the adjoining and characteristically similar Melbourne - Inner East region.
Key findings
Mornington Peninsula
Between 2021 and 2046, Mornington Peninsula is forecast to grow by approximately 48,000 people from 311,199 to 359, 536 or 0.6% pa. The most intensive growth is expected to be high density buildings around the centre of Frankston, with some contribution from lower density medium rise around the identified growth areas in Rosebud, Pt Nepean, Mornington and Hastings. Small scale infill is expected elsewhere.
Approximately 27,000 dwellings are forecast across the forecast period, with approximately one half assumed to be infill and the other half major developments (adding 10 or more dwellings). The most significant of these will be in the Frankston Major Activity Centre which will see approximately 1,800 additional dwellings.
What share of Australia's growth will occur in Victoria?
We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state and regional-level forecasts for Victoria.
Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.
Forecast results
The following forecast information presents the combined numbers for both SA4s in the Southern Melbourne and Peninsula region. Melbourne - Inner South is on version 2021.2024.3.1.1; Mornington Peninsula is on version 5.1.0.
Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast Population | 738,420 | 776,817 | 809,451 | 840,953 | 871,855 | 900,866 |
| Change (five year) | - | 38,397 | 32,634 | 31,502 | 30,902 | 29,011 |
| Average Annual Change (%) | - | 1.02% | 0.83% | 0.77% | 0.72% | 0.66% |
| Forecast Dwellings | 324,100 | 340,338 | 355,711 | 371,469 | 387,358 | 402,643 |
| Change (five year) | - | 16,237 | 15,373 | 15,757 | 15,890 | 15,285 |
| Average Annual Change (%) | - | 0.98% | 0.89% | 0.87% | 0.84% | 0.78% |
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Government Toolkit
Our Government Toolkit gives users access to the proprietary datasets maintained by .id through a suite of intuitive online tools.
See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.
Government Toolkit
Our Government Toolkit gives users access to the proprietary datasets maintained by .id through a suite of intuitive online tools.
See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.
The team
Our forecasting team
Prepared and presented by experts from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.
Johnny Barnard
Principal Consultant
Liza Ivanova
Principal Forecast Consultant
Richard Thornton
Head of Forecasting
Oliver Bowering
Senior Forecast Consultant
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