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Population and housing forecast for Mornington Peninsula
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Mornington Peninsula, which covers the Frankston and Mornington Peninsula council areas, on the land bordering the eastern side of Port Phillip Bay, including Frankston, Mornington, Rosebud, Dromana and Hastings.
- Region
- Mornington Peninsula · SA4 214
- Councils
- Frankston, Mornington Peninsula, Unincorporated Vic (part)
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 07/10/2024
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Seaford
- Frankston
- Carrum Downs
- Langwarrin
- Mount Eliza
- Mornington
- Mount Martha
- Dromana
- Rosebud
- Sorrento
- Somerville
- Hastings
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateVictoria+2.88m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionMornington Peninsula+48,3371.7% of Victoria's growth2021.2022.1.1.1 · Oct 2024
- Below the region17 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Victoria's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Victoria is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
311,199
Population, 2021
359,536
Population, 2046
+48,337
Total growth to 2046
+27,425
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 311,199 | — | 152,273 | — | 17.6 | 60.5 | 22.0 |
| 2026 | 323,680 | +12,481 | 157,032 | +4,759 | 16.8 | 59.7 | 23.5 |
| 2031 | 333,568 | +9,888 | 162,730 | +5,698 | 16.3 | 58.6 | 25.1 |
| 2036 | 343,272 | +9,704 | 168,677 | +5,947 | 16.1 | 57.5 | 26.4 |
| 2041 | 351,873 | +8,601 | 174,360 | +5,683 | 15.9 | 57.0 | 27.1 |
| 2046 | 359,536 | +7,663 | 179,698 | +5,338 | 15.9 | 56.8 | 27.3 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Frankston | 91.0% | |
| Mornington Peninsula | 94.8% | |
| Mornington Peninsula total | 92.7% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 213 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frankston Mac - City Centre (Precinct 1) | FRANKSTON | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Frankston Mac - City Centre (Precinct 1) | FRANKSTON | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Frankston Mac - Arts, Entertainment & Gov. Services (Precinct 3) | FRANKSTON | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Frankston Mac - Promenade (Precinct 4) | FRANKSTON | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Mount Martha Investigation Area | 72 Inga Parade MOUNT MARTHA | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 48 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Frankston
- Mornington
- Langwarrin
- Carrum Downs
- Mount Martha
- Frankston South
- Mount Eliza
- Seaford
- Rosebud
- Somerville
- Hastings
- Rye
- Skye
- Dromana
- Safety Beach
- Frankston North
- Capel Sound
- Sandhurst
- Bittern
- Tyabb
- + 28 more
Plus 28 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Mornington Peninsula
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 213 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.