GOVERNMENT TOOLS
CONSULTING
National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Geelong
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Geelong, which covers the Greater Geelong and Queenscliffe council areas and parts of Surf Coast and Golden Plains, stretching from Lorne to Bannockburn and Meredith, and taking in Lara, Torquay, Queenscliff and Portarlington.
- Region
- Geelong · SA4 203
- Councils
- Golden Plains (part), Greater Geelong, Queenscliffe, Surf Coast (part)
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 22/01/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Geelong
- Geelong West
- Belmont
- Grovedale
- Armstrong Creek
- Lara
- Drysdale
- Ocean Grove
- Queenscliff
- Torquay
- Lorne
- Bannockburn
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateVictoria+2.88m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionGeelong+186,2876.5% of Victoria's growth2021.2022.1.1.2 · Jan 2025
- Below the region23 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Victoria's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Victoria is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
327,419
Population, 2021
513,706
Population, 2046
+186,287
Total growth to 2046
+90,785
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 327,419 | — | 149,858 | — | 18.3 | 62.5 | 19.2 |
| 2026 | 367,122 | +39,703 | 168,209 | +18,351 | 18.0 | 61.3 | 20.7 |
| 2031 | 403,799 | +36,677 | 186,044 | +17,835 | 17.6 | 60.2 | 22.1 |
| 2036 | 440,087 | +36,288 | 203,842 | +17,798 | 17.5 | 59.5 | 23.1 |
| 2041 | 476,851 | +36,764 | 222,078 | +18,236 | 17.1 | 59.1 | 23.9 |
| 2046 | 513,706 | +36,855 | 240,643 | +18,565 | 16.9 | 58.9 | 24.3 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Barwon – West | 28.8% | |
| Geelong | 68.5% | |
| Surf Coast – Bellarine Peninsula | 61.3% | |
| Geelong total | 63.0% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 843 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Geelong Growth Area: Creamery Road Psp | Creamery Road | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Northern Geelong Growth Area Elcho Road West Precinct | 500-775 Evans Road LOVELY BANKS | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Northern Geelong Growth Area Elcho Road West Precinct | 500-775 Evans Road LOVELY BANKS | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Northern Geelong Growth Area Elcho Road West Precinct | 500-775 Evans Road LOVELY BANKS | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Northern Geelong Growth Area Elcho Road West Precinct | 500-775 Evans Road LOVELY BANKS | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 114 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Lara
- Highton
- Torquay
- Ocean Grove
- Armstrong Creek
- Corio
- Grovedale
- Belmont
- Leopold
- Mount Duneed
- Newtown (Greater Geelong - Vic.)
- Norlane
- Clifton Springs
- Charlemont
- Geelong West
- Bannockburn
- Hamlyn Heights
- Geelong
- Bell Park
- Barwon Heads
- + 94 more
Plus 94 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Geelong
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 843 development sites assessed in this region alone.
500+
organisations across Australia trust Informed Decisions for data and insights
15,000+
suburbs forecast, covering every part of Australia
A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.