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Population and housing forecast for Latrobe – Gippsland
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Latrobe – Gippsland, which stretches from the eastern edge of Greater Melbourne to the NSW border, covering the Bass Coast, Baw Baw, Latrobe, South Gippsland, Wellington and East Gippsland council areas, including Traralgon, Warragul, Sale and Bairnsdale.
- Region
- Latrobe – Gippsland · SA4 205
- Councils
- Bass Coast, Baw Baw, East Gippsland, Latrobe (Vic.), South Gippsland, Unincorporated Vic (part), Wellington
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 06/02/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Warragul
- Drouin
- Moe
- Morwell
- Traralgon
- Sale
- Bairnsdale
- Lakes Entrance
- Leongatha
- Wonthaggi
- Inverloch
- Cowes
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateVictoria+2.88m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionLatrobe – Gippsland+95,3263.3% of Victoria's growth2021.2022.1.1.2 · Feb 2025
- Below the region30 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Victoria's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Victoria is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
299,758
Population, 2021
395,084
Population, 2046
+95,326
Total growth to 2046
+53,311
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 299,758 | — | 155,760 | — | 17.3 | 58.5 | 24.2 |
| 2026 | 321,654 | +21,896 | 167,335 | +11,575 | 16.6 | 56.6 | 26.9 |
| 2031 | 338,864 | +17,210 | 176,871 | +9,536 | 15.9 | 54.7 | 29.3 |
| 2036 | 356,735 | +17,871 | 186,965 | +10,094 | 15.5 | 53.6 | 30.9 |
| 2041 | 375,685 | +18,950 | 197,781 | +10,816 | 15.1 | 53.2 | 31.7 |
| 2046 | 395,084 | +19,399 | 209,071 | +11,290 | 15.0 | 53.1 | 31.9 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Baw Baw | 69.9% | |
| Gippsland – East | 70.8% | |
| Gippsland – South West | 58.8% | |
| Latrobe Valley | 45.2% | |
| Wellington | 59.1% | |
| Latrobe – Gippsland total | 60.9% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 837 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drouin potential development | Drouin | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Warragul West Ugz - Dollarburn Road | 135 Dollarburn Rd Warragul | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Future Residential Wonthaggi East | 135 McGibbonys Rd Wonthaggi | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Future Urban Mcglone Road South | 359 McGlone Rd Drouin | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Warragul South Ugz - Warragul-Lardner Road | 149 Warragul-Lardner Rd Warragul | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 509 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Traralgon
- Warragul
- Drouin
- Sale
- Morwell
- Moe
- Bairnsdale
- Inverloch
- Newborough
- Cowes
- Leongatha
- Maffra
- Wonthaggi
- Lakes Entrance
- Churchill
- Korumburra
- Trafalgar
- Paynesville
- North Wonthaggi
- Stratford
- + 489 more
Plus 489 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Latrobe – Gippsland
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 837 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.