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CONSULTING
National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Ballarat
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Ballarat, which covers the Ballarat and Hepburn council areas and parts of Central Goldfields, Golden Plains, Moorabool and Pyrenees, including Ballarat and surrounding towns such as Ballan, Daylesford, Maryborough, Avoca and Beaufort.
- Region
- Ballarat · SA4 201
- Councils
- Ararat (part), Ballarat, Central Goldfields (part), Golden Plains (part), Hepburn, Loddon (part), Moorabool (part), Mount Alexander (part), Pyrenees (part)
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2022.1)
- Released
- 28/05/2024
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Ballarat Central
- Wendouree
- Sebastopol
- Alfredton
- Delacombe
- Buninyong
- Creswick
- Daylesford
- Ballan
- Maryborough
- Avoca
- Beaufort
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateVictoria+2.88m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2022.x
- You are here: RegionBallarat+63,6532.2% of Victoria's growth2021.2022.1.1.1 · May 2024
- Below the region19 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Victoria's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Victoria is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
173,266
Population, 2021
236,919
Population, 2046
+63,653
Total growth to 2046
+36,967
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 173,266 | — | 80,201 | — | 18.2 | 61.3 | 20.5 |
| 2026 | 187,412 | +14,146 | 88,617 | +8,416 | 17.0 | 60.7 | 22.3 |
| 2031 | 199,344 | +11,932 | 95,392 | +6,775 | 16.4 | 59.5 | 24.2 |
| 2036 | 211,059 | +11,715 | 102,142 | +6,750 | 16.3 | 58.2 | 25.5 |
| 2041 | 223,630 | +12,571 | 109,382 | +7,240 | 16.1 | 57.7 | 26.2 |
| 2046 | 236,919 | +13,289 | 117,168 | +7,786 | 15.9 | 57.7 | 26.4 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Ballarat | 49.8% | |
| Creswick – Daylesford – Ballan | 51.3% | |
| Maryborough – Pyrenees | 28.5% | |
| Ballarat total | 49.0% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 461 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambrian Hill Investigation Area (Eden Estate) | 81 Bowes Road ROSS CREEK | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Parwan Psp | 26 Whelans Road PARWAN | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Bonshaw Creek Precinct - Sebastopol Part | 366 ALBERT STREET SEBASTOPOL | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Ballarat North Psp (Core Area) | 171 Gillies Road MINERS REST | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Future Greenfield Growth Opportunity | BACCHUS MARSH SURROUNDS | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 280 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Alfredton
- Sebastopol
- Wendouree
- Maryborough
- Winter Valley
- Ballarat East
- Delacombe
- Lucas
- Ballarat Central
- Brown Hill
- Canadian
- Ballarat North
- Miners Rest
- Mount Clear
- Buninyong
- Ballan
- Creswick
- Mount Helen
- Redan
- Soldiers Hill
- + 260 more
Plus 260 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Ballarat
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 461 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.