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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Melbourne – North West
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Melbourne – North West, which covers the Hume council area and parts of Merri-bek, Moonee Valley and Macedon Ranges, from Avondale Heights, Niddrie and Strathmore in the south to Romsey and Riddells Creek in the north, including Craigieburn and Sunbury.
- Region
- Melbourne – North West · SA4 210
- Councils
- Brimbank (part), Hume, Macedon Ranges (part), Melton (part), Merri-bek (part), Moonee Valley (part)
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 06/10/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Avondale Heights
- Niddrie
- Strathmore
- Glenroy
- Broadmeadows
- Tullamarine
- Roxburgh Park
- Craigieburn
- Mickleham
- Sunbury
- Gisborne
- Romsey
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateVictoria+2.53m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionMelbourne – North West+200,9107.9% of Victoria's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Oct 2026
- Below the region38 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Victoria's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Victoria is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
429,028
Population, 2021
629,938
Population, 2046
+200,910
Total growth to 2046
+80,698
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 429,028 | — | 157,482 | — | 21.0 | 65.8 | 13.2 |
| 2026 | 484,553 | +55,525 | 174,898 | +17,416 | 20.3 | 66.0 | 13.7 |
| 2031 | 528,241 | +43,688 | 192,055 | +17,157 | 19.7 | 65.4 | 14.9 |
| 2036 | 566,501 | +38,260 | 208,580 | +16,525 | 19.0 | 64.8 | 16.2 |
| 2041 | 600,122 | +33,621 | 223,332 | +14,752 | 18.3 | 64.7 | 17.1 |
| 2046 | 629,938 | +29,816 | 238,180 | +14,848 | 17.9 | 64.3 | 17.9 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Keilor | 72.8% | |
| Macedon Ranges | 36.6% | |
| Moreland – North | 79.4% | |
| Sunbury | 72.0% | |
| Tullamarine – Broadmeadows | 84.2% | |
| Melbourne – North West total | 71.9% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 658 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rockcliffe Estate | 280 Lancefield Road Sunbury | Greenfield | Marketing |
| Merrifield City Structure Plan | Mickleham - Yuroke | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Orison Estate - Sunbury | 615 Sunbury Road Sunbury | Greenfield | Marketing |
| Aston Estate - Craigieburn | 1430 Mickleham Road Craigieburn | Greenfield | Marketing |
| Kimberley Estate - Sunbury | Sunbury | Greenfield | Approved |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 62 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Craigieburn
- Sunbury
- Mickleham
- Greenvale
- Glenroy
- Roxburgh Park
- Pascoe Vale
- Keilor East
- Fawkner
- Meadow Heights
- Broadmeadows
- Avondale Heights
- Kalkallo
- Gisborne
- Strathmore
- Coburg North
- Airport West
- Diggers Rest
- Gladstone Park
- Oak Park
- + 42 more
Plus 42 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Melbourne – North West
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 658 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.