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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Melbourne – West
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Melbourne – West, which covers the Maribyrnong, Hobsons Bay and Wyndham council areas, parts of Brimbank and Melton, and the Bacchus Marsh part of Moorabool, from Footscray and Yarraville out to Werribee, Melton and Bacchus Marsh.
- Region
- Melbourne – West · SA4 213
- Councils
- Brimbank (part), Hobsons Bay, Maribyrnong, Melton (part), Moorabool (part), Wyndham
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 14/07/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Footscray
- Yarraville
- Williamstown
- Altona
- Sunshine
- St Albans
- Point Cook
- Werribee
- Tarneit
- Wyndham Vale
- Melton
- Bacchus Marsh
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateVictoria+2.53m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionMelbourne – West+560,95122.2% of Victoria's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jul 2026
- Below the region61 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Victoria's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Victoria is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
864,113
Population, 2021
1,425,064
Population, 2046
+560,951
Total growth to 2046
+239,427
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 864,113 | — | 316,410 | — | 21.8 | 67.3 | 10.9 |
| 2026 | 1,016,013 | +151,900 | 376,282 | +59,872 | 20.6 | 67.7 | 11.6 |
| 2031 | 1,140,764 | +124,751 | 429,240 | +52,958 | 19.4 | 67.5 | 13.1 |
| 2036 | 1,248,344 | +107,580 | 476,150 | +46,910 | 18.6 | 66.9 | 14.5 |
| 2041 | 1,341,072 | +92,728 | 517,144 | +40,994 | 18.0 | 66.3 | 15.6 |
| 2046 | 1,425,064 | +83,992 | 555,837 | +38,693 | 17.6 | 65.6 | 16.8 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Brimbank | 50.4% | |
| Hobsons Bay | 83.6% | |
| Maribyrnong | 62.7% | |
| Melton – Bacchus Marsh | 76.1% | |
| Wyndham | 83.7% | |
| Melbourne – West total | 75.0% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 1,474 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Highpoint Activity Centre | 153 - Raleigh Road Maribyrnong | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Merrimu Precinct Structure Plan | 152 - Bences Road Merrimu | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| East Werribee Employment Precinct Structure Plan | 200 - 220 Hoppers Lane Werribee South | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Melton East Precinct Structure Plan | 1128-1158 Beattys Road Grangefields | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Highpoint Activity Centre | 2 - 2 Williamson Road Maribyrnong | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Who prepared this forecast
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 89 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Tarneit
- Point Cook
- Werribee
- Truganina
- St Albans
- Hoppers Crossing
- Wyndham Vale
- Caroline Springs
- Footscray
- Sunshine West
- Altona Meadows
- Deer Park
- Fraser Rise
- Manor Lakes
- Hillside (Melton - Vic.)
- Yarraville
- Williamstown
- Taylors Hill
- Taylors Lakes
- Newport
- + 69 more
Plus 69 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Melbourne – West
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 1,474 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.