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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Melbourne – South East
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Melbourne – South East, which covers the Casey and Greater Dandenong council areas and parts of Cardinia, Monash and Kingston, stretching from Ashwood and Chadstone east to Bunyip and south to Pearcedale and Tooradin.
- Region
- Melbourne – South East · SA4 212
- Councils
- Cardinia (part), Casey, Greater Dandenong, Kingston (Vic.) (part), Monash (part), Yarra Ranges (part)
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 02/10/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Glen Waverley
- Oakleigh
- Clayton
- Springvale
- Dandenong
- Noble Park
- Narre Warren
- Berwick
- Cranbourne
- Clyde North
- Officer
- Pakenham
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateVictoria+2.53m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionMelbourne – South East+369,35514.6% of Victoria's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Oct 2026
- Below the region56 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Victoria's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Victoria is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
870,398
Population, 2021
1,239,753
Population, 2046
+369,355
Total growth to 2046
+151,687
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 870,398 | — | 310,945 | — | 20.1 | 66.3 | 13.6 |
| 2026 | 981,041 | +110,643 | 343,133 | +32,188 | 18.9 | 66.8 | 14.3 |
| 2031 | 1,060,946 | +79,905 | 374,206 | +31,073 | 17.9 | 66.5 | 15.6 |
| 2036 | 1,127,979 | +67,033 | 404,495 | +30,289 | 17.0 | 66.0 | 17.0 |
| 2041 | 1,185,779 | +57,800 | 433,670 | +29,175 | 16.6 | 65.4 | 18.0 |
| 2046 | 1,239,753 | +53,974 | 462,632 | +28,962 | 16.5 | 64.8 | 18.8 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Cardinia | 75.9% | |
| Casey – North | 69.9% | |
| Casey – South | 92.1% | |
| Dandenong | 56.6% | |
| Monash | 61.4% | |
| Melbourne – South East total | 75.4% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 1,367 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pmp Printing Strategic Site | 26-30 Bendix Drive Clayton | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Clyde South Psp 1056 | 1710 Ballarto Road Clyde | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Kingswood Country Golf Course Redevelopment | 179-217 Centre Dandenong Rd, Dingley Village Vic 3172 | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Springvale Activity Centre | Springvale | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Suburban Rail Loop East Glen Waverley - Significant Change Area | 40-42 Montclair Avenue Glen Waverley | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 95 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Pakenham
- Berwick
- Clyde North
- Glen Waverley
- Mount Waverley
- Noble Park
- Dandenong
- Keysborough
- Narre Warren South
- Cranbourne East
- Narre Warren
- Hampton Park
- Officer
- Cranbourne North
- Clayton
- Endeavour Hills
- Springvale
- Dandenong North
- Cranbourne
- Clyde
- + 75 more
Plus 75 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Melbourne – South East
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 1,367 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.