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Population and housing forecast for Melbourne – Inner South
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Melbourne – Inner South, which covers the Glen Eira and Bayside council areas and parts of Stonnington and Kingston, from Malvern and Caulfield south to Carrum and Patterson Lakes, including Brighton, Bentleigh and Mentone.
- Region
- Melbourne – Inner South · SA4 208
- Councils
- Bayside (Vic.), Glen Eira, Kingston (Vic.) (part), Monash (part), Stonnington (part)
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 04/08/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Malvern
- Caulfield
- Elsternwick
- Carnegie
- Bentleigh
- Brighton
- Hampton
- Sandringham
- Cheltenham
- Mentone
- Mordialloc
- Carrum
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateVictoria+2.53m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionMelbourne – Inner South+91,4533.6% of Victoria's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Aug 2026
- Below the region29 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Victoria's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Victoria is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
427,065
Population, 2021
518,518
Population, 2046
+91,453
Total growth to 2046
+45,951
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 427,065 | — | 185,916 | — | 17.5 | 64.7 | 17.7 |
| 2026 | 456,924 | +29,859 | 195,010 | +9,094 | 15.9 | 65.5 | 18.7 |
| 2031 | 473,164 | +16,240 | 203,329 | +8,319 | 14.7 | 65.1 | 20.2 |
| 2036 | 490,343 | +17,179 | 212,757 | +9,428 | 14.2 | 64.1 | 21.8 |
| 2041 | 505,512 | +15,169 | 222,501 | +9,744 | 13.9 | 63.1 | 23.0 |
| 2046 | 518,518 | +13,006 | 231,867 | +9,366 | 13.9 | 62.5 | 23.6 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Bayside | 23.9% | |
| Glen Eira | 21.5% | |
| Kingston | 29.8% | |
| Stonnington – East | 21.8% | |
| Melbourne – Inner South total | 23.2% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 647 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caulfield Commercial 1 Zone Potential Development | Caulfield | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| 420 South Road, Moorabbin | 420 South Road | Redevelopment | Approved |
| Caulfield Village - Realm Caulfield | 10 - Station Street Caulfield North | Apartments | Complete |
| Caulfield Place, Caulfield | 18 - Station Street Caulfield North | Apartments | Complete |
| Caulfield Village (Stage 10), Caulfield | Caulfield East | Apartments | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Who prepared this forecast
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 42 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Bentleigh East
- Cheltenham
- Brighton
- Malvern East
- Carnegie
- Caulfield North
- Bentleigh
- Brighton East
- Hampton
- Beaumaris
- Mentone
- Highett
- Caulfield South
- Parkdale
- Sandringham
- Elsternwick
- Murrumbeena
- Malvern
- Mordialloc
- Ormond
- + 22 more
Plus 22 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Melbourne – Inner South
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 647 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.