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Eastern Melbourne
The population and housing forecast for the Eastern Melbourne region
SA4s in region:
- Melbourne - Inner East
- Melbourne - Outer East
Latest update: Melbourne - Inner East, July 2026 (version 2021.2024.3.1.1)
Melbourne - Outer East: last published April 2024 (version 5.1.0)
Read forecast analysis and insights for the Eastern Melbourne region from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.
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About
About the Eastern Melbourne region
The Eastern Melbourne region comprises two SA4s: Melbourne - Inner East and Melbourne - Outer East. Together they are forecast to account for 7% of Victoria's total population growth between 2021 and 2046, of which Melbourne - Inner East contributes about 3.8%.
The Inner East SA4 is composed of established inner and middle ring Melbourne suburbs, from Kew and Hawthorn in the west, to Blackburn in the east. It includes the whole of the City of Boroondara, which covers the more historic parts of the SA4, with rapid residential development occurring in the mid- to late-1800s. The SA4 also includes about half, by area, of Manningham Council (featuring a range of nature walks and the Heide Museum of Modern Art), and Whitehorse City Council (possessing several significant medical and education facilities). Opportunities for large scale housing developments are limited due to the established nature of the areas in this SA4, and where such do exist, they are opportunistic redevelopments of land switching use primarily from manufacturing.
The Outer East SA4 covers a vast area from established outer ring suburbs like Ringwood, Bayswater, and Croydon to the wine country in the Yarra Valley including Healesville, Yarra Junction, and Warburton. Unlike most outer ring SA4s the Outer East has no identified Precinct Structure Planned areas for greenfield growth, this means that most development is constrained to densification projects, or reclaimed land like decommissioned quarries or golf courses. The SA4 contains the whole of Maroondah, Knox, and Yarra Valley LGAs known for their established residential areas and access to nature, and the remaining parts of Manningham and Whitehorse LGAs.
Key findings
Melbourne - Inner East
Melbourne - Inner East is forecast to grow from 377,518 people in 2021 to 471,759 in 2046, a net increase of 94,241 residents. The SA4 is expected to surpass 430,000 residents by 2033, and meeting that growth requires 45,288 additional dwellings.
Boroondara has new activity centres stemming from the Train and Tram Activity Centres programme, covering Hawthorn, Glenferrie and Auburn. Higher height limits and an accelerated approvals pathway open the way for more mixed-use high-rise development, unlocking high-density housing. That is further supported by low and mid-rise rezoning within transport catchments, building on the existing Kew and Camberwell activity centres. Boroondara is set to grow on the strength of its inner proximity and transport access.
The Box Hill and Burwood Suburban Rail Loop precincts are further infrastructure initiatives with supporting housing catchments carrying increased heights, again supported by low and mid-rise rezoning within an 800 metre transport catchment to provide a wider variety of homes.
Manningham expects most of its development to come from infill, as the main corridors along Doncaster Road and Manningham Road have already used most of their large lots for mixed-use development. In the Doncaster area, single homes are increasingly being converted to multi-dwelling or townhouse configurations.
Melbourne - Inner East accounts for about 3.8% of Victoria's forecast population growth to 2046, reflecting the densification of Melbourne's inner eastern suburbs.
Key Findings
Outer East
From 2021 through to 2046 the Melbourne - Outer East SA4 population will increase from just under 523,000 to around 609,000 people. Most SA2s in this area do see some growth, though the majority is seen in the Lilydale - Coldstream, Ringwood, and Wantirna South SA2s.
The most notable development in the SA4 is the Kinley Estate which is located in the Lilydale - Coldstream SA2 (Yarra Ranges LGA), this comprises around 3,200 new dwellings on the former Lilydale Quarry site. This estate coupled with a growing amount of infill development within the Lilydale town centre sees this SA2s population grow by 84% through the forecast period from 19,700 in 2021 to 36,400 by 2046. Apart from outer suburban areas like Chirnside Park and Mooroolbark SA2s, the Yarra Ranges LGA has little area for densification or greenfield growth so this does see some of the more regional areas in this LGA decline in population over the forecast period.
The Ringwood SA2 has the only Metropolitan Activity Centre in the SA4 (Ringwood MAC), therefore there is an increase in densification projects around this activity centre. This SA2 is also one of the only sources of high-density housing in the SA4 - particularly in the earlier years of the forecast. This sees an additional 5,200 dwellings over the forecast period within this SA2, and a population growth of around 9,000 people.
The other SA2 which looks to grow significantly is the Wantirna South SA2, which will see an additional 2,800 dwellings. As well as having some turnover in its green wedge areas this SA2 holds the main Activity Centre for the Knox LGA, which is around the Westfield Knox Shopping Centre. Overall this SA2 will grow by around 32% to just under 24,000 people.
What share of Australia's growth will occur in Victoria?
We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state- and regional-level forecasts for Victoria.
Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.
Forecast results
The following forecast information presents the combined numbers for both SA4s in the Eastern Melbourne region. Melbourne - Inner East is on version 2021.2024.3.1.1; Melbourne - Outer East is on version 5.1.0.
Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast Population | 900,490 | 942,211 | 979,972 | 1,016,768 | 1,054,365 | 1,090,878 |
| Change (five year) | - | 41,721 | 37,761 | 36,796 | 37,598 | 6,512 |
| Average Annual Change (%) | - | 0.91% | 0.79% | 0.74% | 0.73% | 0.68% |
| Forecast Dwellings | 364,335 | 379,956 | 399,281 | 418,159 | 437,303 | 456,439 |
| Change (five year | - | 15,621 | 19,325 | 18,878 | 19,144 | 19,136 |
| Average Annual Change (%) | - | 0.84% | 1.00% | 0.93% | 0.90% | 0.86% |
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Government Toolkit
Our Government Toolkit gives users access to the proprietary datasets maintained by .id through a suite of intuitive online tools.
See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.
Government Toolkit
Our Government Toolkit gives users access to the proprietary datasets maintained by .id through a suite of intuitive online tools.
See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.
The team
Our forecasting team
Prepared and presented by experts from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.
Johnny Barnard
Principal Consultant
Liza Ivanova
Principal Forecast Consultant
Richard Thornton
Head of Forecasting
Chris Jones
Forecaster
Oliver Bowering
Senior Forecast Consultant
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