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Population forecast for Victoria
Our 2025 population forecast for Victoria, and the starting point for the forecasts of its 17 regions.
- State
- Victoria
- Regions
- 17, each forecast individually
- Base
- ABS ERP June 2024
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
The forecast
6,547,822
Population, 2021
9,077,330
Population, 2046
+2,529,508
Total growth to 2046
29.5%
Share of national growth
+1,199,305
Additional dwellings
21.4%
Aged 65 and over, 2046
17
Regions forecast individually
Age structure
| Age group | 2021 | 2046 | Change, percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aged 0–14 | 18.2% | 15.0% | −3.2 |
| Aged 15–64 | 65.4% | 63.6% | −1.8 |
| Aged 65 and over | 16.4% | 21.4% | +5.0 |
Victoria's population, 2021 to 2046
Our 2025 forecast against Victoria in Future 2023, at 30 June.
- Victoria in Future · 9.7m (comparison)
- Our forecast · 9.08m (our forecast)
Source: Informed Decisions, National Forecasting Program, 2025 forecast. 2021 to 2024 are ABS estimated resident population. Comparison: Victoria in Future 2023, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, state-level series.
+ Show the data− Hide the data
| Year | Our forecast | Victoria in Future |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 6.55m | 6.55m |
| 2026 | 7.23m | 7.18m |
| 2031 | 7.73m | 7.80m |
| 2036 | 8.21m | 8.43m |
| 2041 | 8.66m | 9.06m |
| 2046 | 9.08m | 9.70m |
Download the full series (CSV)
Informed Decisions, National Forecasting Program, 2025 forecast
Where Victoria sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: StateVictoria+2.53m to 204629.5% of national growth2025 forecast
- Below the state17 regions, forecast individuallyThe largest growth is forecast for Melbourne – West. Each region carries its own release.
Victoria's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. How it is distributed inside Victoria is built from development assessed on the ground, region by region.
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Net overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State (this page)
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing and planning policy
- Economic conditions
- Region
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
- Local capacity
Comparison with Victoria in Future (VIF)
For a lot of planning work the state's own projection is the default number. In Victoria that is Victoria in Future, published by the Department of Transport and Planning, with VIF2023 the current release. At 2046 it puts the state at 9.70 million people. We forecast 9.08 million, about 618,000 fewer, or 6.4% below. Both start from the same 2021 population, so the whole of that difference is a different view of the twenty-five years in between.
Why our forecast is different
- Independent of any planning position or housing target
- Every development site assessed on its own, with a view on when it will be built
- Regions monitored and continually updated
- Population and dwellings from the same model
- Single year of age and sex, for every year
- Small area detail, down to SA1 and suburb
- One forecast we stand behind, not a range to choose between
- Explicit about what is driving growth in each region
How the two compare
| Our forecast | Victoria in Future 2023 | |
|---|---|---|
| Latest release | 2025 forecast, regions monitored and continually updated | 2023 |
| Forecast horizon | 2046 | 2036 for local areas, 2051 for the state |
| Smallest area published | SA1 and suburb | SA2 |
| Scenarios published | One | One |
Sources: Informed Decisions, National Forecasting Program, 2025 forecast; Victoria in Future 2023, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning.
Components of population change, 2021 to 2046
| Component | 2021 to 2046 |
|---|---|
| Births | +2,028,830 |
| Deaths | −1,513,500 |
| Natural increase | +515,330 |
| Net overseas migration | +2,010,224 |
| Net interstate migration | +3,953 |
| Total change | +2,529,508 |
Regional forecasts for Victoria
| Region | Population, 2021 | Population, 2046 | Growth to 2046 | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballarat | 173,266 | 236,919 | +63,653 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · May 2024 |
| Bendigo | 167,196 | 224,875 | +57,679 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Jun 2024 |
| Geelong | 327,419 | 513,706 | +186,287 | 2021.2022.1.1.2 · Jan 2025 |
| Hume | 184,129 | 230,268 | +46,139 | 2021.2022.1.1.2 · Feb 2025 |
| Latrobe – Gippsland | 299,758 | 395,084 | +95,326 | 2021.2022.1.1.2 · Feb 2025 |
| Melbourne – Inner | 627,671 | 1,044,902 | +417,231 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · May 2024 |
| Melbourne – Inner East | 377,518 | 471,759 | +94,241 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jul 2026 |
| Melbourne – Inner South | 427,065 | 518,518 | +91,453 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Aug 2026 |
| Melbourne – North East | 546,251 | 916,111 | +369,860 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Apr 2024 |
| Melbourne – North West | 429,028 | 629,938 | +200,910 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Oct 2026 |
| Melbourne – Outer East | 522,777 | 608,790 | +86,013 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Jul 2024 |
| Melbourne – South East | 870,398 | 1,239,753 | +369,355 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Oct 2026 |
| Melbourne – West | 864,113 | 1,425,064 | +560,951 | 2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jul 2026 |
| Mornington Peninsula | 311,199 | 359,536 | +48,337 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Oct 2024 |
| North West | 155,140 | 157,586 | +2,446 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Sep 2024 |
| Shepparton | 137,375 | 158,918 | +21,543 | 2021.2022.1.1.2 · Feb 2025 |
| Warrnambool and South West | 127,600 | 136,347 | +8,747 | 2021.2022.1.1.1 · Oct 2024 |
Our forecasting team
Common questions about the forecast for Victoria
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters.
500+
organisations across Australia trust Informed Decisions for data and insights
15,000+
suburbs forecast, covering every part of Australia
A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker is our mapping and reporting platform for population, housing and development. Draw any catchment in Victoria and get the forecast for it, by single year, with age and sex detail and the development pipeline behind it.
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