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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday, which covers the Mackay, Isaac and Whitsunday council areas on Queensland's mid coast, from Mackay, Airlie Beach and Bowen on the coast to Moranbah and Clermont inland.
- Region
- Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday · SA4 312
- Councils
- Isaac, Mackay, Whitsunday
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 29/10/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Mackay
- Sarina
- Walkerston
- Mirani
- Proserpine
- Cannonvale
- Airlie Beach
- Bowen
- Collinsville
- Moranbah
- Dysart
- Clermont
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateQueensland+2.17m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionMackay – Isaac – Whitsunday+49,2232.3% of Queensland's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Oct 2025
- Below the region25 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Queensland's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Queensland is built from development assessed on the ground.
As there are no expansions or new coal mines understood to be on the horizon, it is assumed that any additional workforce will be accommodated in the substantial work camps already existing in the main mining towns (these are not counted as usual residents, but included in the total population).
The forecast
183,209
Population, 2021
232,432
Population, 2046
+49,223
Total growth to 2046
+18,634
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 183,209 | — | 81,026 | — | 19.8 | 66.0 | 14.2 |
| 2026 | 197,639 | +14,430 | 83,840 | +2,814 | 18.5 | 65.4 | 16.1 |
| 2031 | 207,133 | +9,494 | 87,829 | +3,989 | 17.8 | 63.7 | 18.5 |
| 2036 | 215,839 | +8,706 | 91,802 | +3,973 | 18.1 | 61.8 | 20.2 |
| 2041 | 224,238 | +8,399 | 95,739 | +3,937 | 18.6 | 60.4 | 21.0 |
| 2046 | 232,432 | +8,194 | 99,660 | +3,921 | 18.7 | 60.2 | 21.1 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Bowen Basin – North | 40.7% | |
| Mackay | 42.2% | |
| Whitsunday | 17.4% | |
| Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday total | 35.3% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 206 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 Temples Lane Bakers Creek | 55 Temples Lane BAKERS CREEK | Greenfield | Approved |
| Edenvale / Cannon Valley Master Planned Community (Alder) | 1405 Shute Harbour Road, Cannon Valley | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| 9 Boardrider Boulevard Shoal Point | 9 Boardrider Boulevard SHOAL POINT | Greenfield | Under construction |
| Whitsunday Paradise | BOWEN | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Boardwalk Precinct, Plantation Palms Estate | RURAL VIEW | Greenfield | Site clearing |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 197 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Bowen
- Andergrove
- Moranbah
- Cannonvale
- South Mackay
- Beaconsfield
- West Mackay
- Rural View
- North Mackay
- Sarina
- Bucasia
- Mount Pleasant (Mackay - Qld)
- Glenella
- Blacks Beach
- Marian
- Mackay
- Ooralea
- East Mackay
- Proserpine
- Walkerston
- + 177 more
Plus 177 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Mackay – Isaac – Whitsunday
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 206 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.
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