A Way Forward for Wyndham: Advocacy for What Matters
Community views
GOVERNMENT TOOLS
CONSULTING
You are planning for growth. But will it be built? Your questions, answered
Population forecasting
Rob Hall
Chief Economist
Six takeaways from 24 questions
Planning reform keeps moving where housing growth can land. These are the points our panel came back to most often.
- Zoned capacity is not supply. In Shoalhaven, 47,171 theoretical dwellings came down to around 2,100 that were commercially feasible.
- Grattan Institute analysis puts Melbourne's zoned capacity near 600,000 homes, with about 110,000 of them feasible.
- Before you re-time capital, ask what was constraining growth before the reform: if it was planning, your timing changes, if it was demand, it probably does not.
- Lapsing development applications are the clearest local signal that feasibility has not arrived yet.
- Medium density parcels in Wyndham and Melton precinct plans are being delivered as aged care and childcare, not apartments, which leaves plans short on supply.
- Timing matters more than the total. Four Hunter Water scenarios spanned more than 13,000 dwellings and moved one precinct's start date from 2032 to 2041.
More than 300 people registered for our session on separating planning ambition from what the market will actually deliver, and over 50 questions came in between registration and the live Q&A. We could not get to them all on the day, so Rob Hall, Oliver Bowering and Nenad Petrovic have answered them here, grouped by theme.
Each question appears as it was submitted. Where two people asked much the same thing, we have answered once and credited both.
The full session, slides and resources are available to watch on demand, and several answers below point to the slide that carries the analysis. Watch the session on demand.
Jump to a section
- The framework, in brief
- Feasibility, and why zoned capacity is not supply (eight questions)
- Density, housing diversity and transit oriented development (four questions)
- How the forecasts are built (six questions)
- Applying this in your own region (six questions)
- Questions we are still working on
- Watch the session on demand
The framework, in brief
You are planning infrastructure that will be in the ground for 30 to 40 years. The rules that decide when and where growth happens are not that stable. Every state has introduced new housing policy since the pandemic, and New South Wales added another one the week before the session. So the hard call is whether you plan for the ambition or for something closer to what the market will deliver.
We test that two ways.
Is the new capacity feasible? Zoned capacity is the easy part: developable land, planning controls, density, height, setback, site coverage, and you have a number. The harder test is taking the revenue a finished development would earn, subtracting the costs, and seeing whether what is left beats what the land is already worth. If it does, a rational developer builds. If it does not, they wait. Grattan Institute analysis puts Melbourne's zoned capacity at around 600,000 homes, with about 110,000 of those commercially feasible. Sydney tells a similar story.
Slide 7 has the zoned capacity against feasible capacity comparison, and slide 8 sets out the supply constrained and demand limited test. Watch the session on demand.
What was constraining growth before the reform? Neither a zoning map nor a development approval will tell you. In supply constrained markets, demand is already there and planning controls have held delivery back. Think Sydney's east, Melbourne's inner east, or the centre of a major regional city. Reform releases latent demand and brings development forward, which may mean bringing your own investment forward. In demand limited locations, capacity was never the binding constraint. Reform lifts what could be built without changing what is built in the near term, and growth only accelerates when something changes the demand fundamentals.
Shoalhaven, on the New South Wales south coast, shows what that looks like in practice. Planning reform created theoretical capacity for around 47,000 dwellings there, and our analysis found about 2,100 were feasible today, roughly 4 per cent. Nowra and Bomaderry both came out demand limited, with a healthy pipeline already available to build. The practical conclusion was that reform on its own was not a reason to bring near term investment forward. What it did do was lift the ceiling for around 2035 to 2040, when supply would otherwise have become constrained, which is good news for the long term growth of those centres.
The Shoalhaven feasibility analysis is on slide 9, including the 47,171 theoretical dwellings against 2,100 feasible. See the case study in the on-demand recording.
Capacity is not delivery, and reform is not a forecast.
Here are your questions.
Feasibility, and why zoned capacity is not supply
Will the housing growth planned for Mount Barker actually be built?
Steven Conn
Senior Strategic Planner, Mount Barker District Council
As submitted: "Will it be built? This is an ongoing existential for Mount Barker, which has significant growth with limited infrastructure."
For Mount Barker, the sharper question may be less 'will the housing be built?' and more 'will infrastructure keep pace with the growth already happening?'
Liverpool is a useful comparison. There, housing was being delivered faster and at higher densities than had been anticipated, which meant the area's ultimate population capacity was also significantly higher than planned. That evidence helped strengthen the case for major infrastructure investment, including a new road connection.
The same approach would work in Mount Barker. Test the likely scale and timing of development, translate that into infrastructure demand, then use the evidence to argue for earlier investment.
Answered by Rob Hall, Chief Economist at Informed Decisions.
What can a council do to make good density viable?
Tania Conforti
Senior Urban Designer, City of Melton
As submitted: "Underdevelopment in the growth areas. We are told that apartments do not stack up in Melton, however land is developed with the cheapest to deliver but wrong kind of density that does not max out what is possible and especially what makes public transport viable. At what point is good density viable? What can we as a municipality do to support the density that was planned for?"
Planning capacity does not create a viable development market. St Albans in Brimbank is the clearest illustration: heavily upzoned around the station, and still not feasible, because apartments cost around $600,000 each to build in Melbourne and that is not what they sell for in St Albans. Melton faces the same arithmetic, with the added pressure of competing greenfield product and denser pockets elsewhere in western Melbourne chasing the same buyers.
Council cannot solve that equation alone, but it can move the cost and risk side of it:
- Make the approval pathway quick and predictable. The train and tram activity centres reforms already remove some VCAT refusal rights, and certainty about not ending up at a tribunal takes real cost out of a project.
- Release surplus council land. That removes the cost of land from the feasibility equation entirely, which is often the difference between a project stacking up and not.
- Invest in visible amenity and infrastructure, because amenity is what sets the achievable price per square metre.
- Seed the market. Where apartments are not yet viable, community housing providers and specialist disability accommodation are usually what gets the first denser product built, because lower land costs make the numbers work. That can start the densification trend in an area.
It is also worth not locking strategic sites into low density too early. Where apartments are not viable yet, interim uses or adaptable development hold the opportunity open, for example surplus car parking around a town centre that could carry higher density in 20 or 30 years.
Answered by Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant, and Rob Hall, Chief Economist at Informed Decisions.
Why is zoned capacity theoretical, and what stops it being feasible?
Maryanne Tully
Development Planning Manager, Yarra Valley Water
As submitted: "Interested in the work you have completed on development fronts and why zoned capacity is theoretical, and what stops it from being feasible."
If development costs exceed the revenue a project can achieve, it is not feasible. Either costs have to fall or revenue has to rise.
Costs are land purchase, demolition, construction, parking, fees, financing and the developer's margin. Land and construction are the two that really bite at the moment, and the step up from walk-up construction to lift and basement is where a lot of mid-rise sites fail.
Revenue is tied to amenity. Transport, access to jobs, schools, open space. That is what people pay for, and it is what sets the price per square metre. Grattan's work put the total cost of a Sydney unit at more than $1 million, so a site has to achieve that price for the project to proceed. Their Melbourne numbers show the same gap at scale: around 600,000 homes of zoned capacity, about 110,000 of them commercially feasible.
Theoretical capacity still matters, because it tells you what is possible over the long term. It is just not a forecast, so it should not be translated straight into infrastructure demand.
Answered by Rob Hall, Chief Economist at Informed Decisions.
Slide 7 shows the Grattan comparison for both cities, drawn from More homes, better cities (Coates, Moloney and Bowes, 2025). Watch this part of the session.
Related reading: our forecast review covers the growth outlook for every region in Australia.
What proportion of development applications reach construction?
Robert Bryan
Planning Engineer, TasWater
As submitted: "In Tasmania the clearest evidence of intent is the submission of Service Enquiries and Development Applications that reach us through a council. A customer connection is still not a certainty. What proportion of these documents survives to construction?"
There is no single conversion rate. It runs high in greenfield locations, around 90 per cent, because there is a strong guarantee of sale, and it is also higher where villa units and townhouses are the product of choice.
Apartments are the opposite, and the variation shows up within a single local government area. Broadbeach on the Gold Coast sees most of its apartment applications proceed. In Southport, several of Australia's next tallest buildings are still sitting at development application stage, sites change hands repeatedly and approvals lapse.
We keep track by returning to every area roughly every 18 months and forecasting it again, which shows what has moved, which applications progressed and which stalled. That matters more than usual right now, because policy is changing what an approval even means. In Chatswood, developers are stacking approvals: buildings demolished, apartments already being marketed, and a further application lodged to add a 30 per cent uplift for affordable housing. Applications that went in at 12 to 15 storeys are coming back at 34 to 40. Land and housing prices have risen enough that you have to stack more onto a development to make it work.
Answered by Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant at Informed Decisions.
How are environmental constraints factored into feasible capacity?
Martin Chin
Senior Strategic Planner, City of Brimbank
As submitted: "To what extent have environmental constraints been considered in estimating the feasible development capacity?"
Environmental constraints are a core input. In our Shoalhaven analysis we excluded land where environmental zoning prohibits building, along with flood prone land and areas exposed to other identified environmental risks.
The important distinction is that this applies to assessments of future capacity, not to existing stock. Plenty of highly desirable housing sits in flood zones, along the Brisbane River for instance, and land that is zoned but carries a long dated flood risk does still get developed. So it is applied site by site rather than as a blanket exclusion.
Marsden Park in Blacktown shows why it matters. When constraints reduce developable land in one area, that supply has to come out of the forecast and the expected growth redistributed elsewhere. Neighbouring areas pick up the slack, and that changes their infrastructure timing.
Answered by Rob Hall, Chief Economist at Informed Decisions.
What timeframe does the feasibility indicator assume?
Jennifer Camp
Senior Urban Planner, Wyndham City Council
As submitted: "What timeframe is the feasibility indicator assuming?"
It assumes total feasible capacity irrespective of time, with current zoning, market and other conditions determining the feasibility side.
In other words it is a point in time measure. Both the Grattan analysis and our Shoalhaven case study assess feasibility using the construction costs, sale prices and development assumptions prevailing when the work was done. As those inputs change, so does the feasibility of individual sites. Clayton in Melbourne today is not the Clayton of 2035 once the Suburban Rail Loop is built, and realisation rates there will shift accordingly. It is one of the main reasons we update our forecasts often.
Answered by Nenad Petrovic, Head of Consulting, and Rob Hall, Chief Economist at Informed Decisions.
Which indicators show whether feasibility is improving?
Holly Corpe
Coordinator Social Planning, Blacktown Council
As submitted: "What indicators should we be watching to know whether feasibility is improving?"
Start with development applications, and specifically whether they lapse. If applications are being lodged and then lapsing, feasibility is not there. Southport on the Gold Coast is the cautionary case. If they move through to marketing and sale instead, the corner has turned.
Then two market measures. The margin, meaning whether achievable prices and rents are rising faster than construction costs, which is the carrot for a developer to build here rather than somewhere else. And absorption, meaning how quickly the market takes up stock: vacancy rates tightening, days on market falling, sales and leasing speeding up.
Beyond the numbers, watch what the council itself is doing. Parklets, streetscape works and visible beautification signal confidence and lift achievable prices. Committed infrastructure does the same thing faster.
Grouped, the signals we use in the forecasts are:
- Development economics: house prices, rents and construction costs.
- Demand: rising incomes, socio-economic change (an area starting to attract students or younger professionals), major employers arriving, and major infrastructure projects including public transport and public realm upgrades.
- Supply: competing projects, remaining greenfield capacity, and development intent, which shows up as approval activity and lapsed approvals.
The judgement call is whether an upzoned area is going to follow Castle Hill, where a state led rezoning landed alongside the Metro North West stations and applications converted, or Fishermans Bend, where the rezoning was never followed by the transport it assumed. For Ku-ring-gai, where lodgements jumped after the February 2025 state led zoning changes, Ollie's current read is Castle Hill rather than Fishermans Bend, though that has to play out through the forecast.
Answered by Nenad Petrovic, Head of Consulting, Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant, and Rob Hall, Chief Economist at Informed Decisions.
Slides 15 and 16 compare Castle Hill and Fishermans Bend between 2021 and 2026, and slide 20 has the Ku-ring-gai lodgement chart against Hornsby. Watch the session on demand.
What went wrong with the demand assumptions at Fishermans Bend?
Viv Luxton
Principal Growth Management Planner, Mackay Regional Council
As submitted: "You mentioned that the underpinning demand wasn't addressed at Fisherman's Bend. How would you suggest this should have been addressed?"
Fishermans Bend was a large scale rezoning of industrial land in 2012, with major planning finalised in 2018, into an area with low amenity and almost no connection other than the West Gate and the 96 tram on one edge. It was closer to a 'zone it and they will come' approach.
The plans were never followed by the infrastructure they assumed. Two tram lines were part of the plan and are still unfunded. Metro Tunnel 2 has faded. A new transport plan was announced in 2025 without concrete delivery timelines. Between 2021 and 2026, the only real development has been the Montague pocket at the eastern corner, which already had the tram and a connection through to South Bank.
Competing supply was the other half of it. The precinct was planned during a Melbourne apartment boom that subsided after 2018, with other projects chasing the same population driven demand. There has been an upturn since COVID, which makes now a reasonable moment to revisit delivery. Schools and parks are behind too, and they are part of the amenity that lifts achievable prices.
The lesson is straightforward. Rezoning without committed transport investment does not reliably convert into delivery.
Answered by Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant at Informed Decisions.
Slide 16 shows the aerial comparison between 2021 and 2026, with Castle Hill on slide 15 as the counter-example. Watch the session on demand.
Also raised in this theme. Registrants asked to see more on realistic housing supply, the gap between what is planned and what is likely to be developed, development sequencing and timing, market conditions in growth areas, and how well planning strategy is matching market outcomes. Infrastructure-first development came up too, which is exactly the Fishermans Bend story above.
Density, housing diversity and transit oriented development
When will four storey and higher development take off?
Emrys Williams
Senior Strategic Planner, Nillumbik Shire
As submitted: "When can we expect 4+ storey development to take off?"
There is no single answer for Australia, because building regulations, construction costs and land prices all vary, and land prices vary significantly even within one local government area. What decides it is usually transport quality rather than zoning on its own.
Compare three places. Tallawong is as far from the Sydney CBD as Sunbury is from Melbourne, and it is getting major apartment development, because a Metro North West station sits right there delivering high frequency services. Cobblebank and Strathtulloh in Melton have land identified for exactly that sort of density, but rely on a V/Line service that is over capacity and unelectrified, so the density has not followed. The Melton Hospital may start to shift that, most likely as key worker and affordable housing first.
Then St Albans in Brimbank, heavily upzoned around the station, where apartments still are not feasible because they cost around $600,000 each to build in Melbourne and would not sell for that there. What is getting built instead is community housing and specialist disability accommodation.
Where apartments are already going up at four storeys and above, it is in high amenity areas that command a premium: Stonnington, Yarra, Ku-ring-gai, Subiaco. Sydney has more of it than anywhere else, simply because average apartment prices are higher there.
Answered by Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant at Informed Decisions.
Slide 17 covers development intent, including Tallawong and the growth area parcels earmarked for density that are being built out as something else. Watch the session on demand.
What are the economic drivers behind activity centres developed by a single landowner?
Tom Vathis
Principal Planner, Activity Centres, City of Wyndham
As submitted: "I want to better understand the economic drivers behind the development of activity centres, particularly those in growth areas and developed by one landowner/developer."
North west Perth is the clearest current example. House prices in that corridor doubled between 2020 and 2026, and large landholders including Stockland and Peet moved quickly around Yanchep and East Wanneroo. East Wanneroo's new district structure plan had sequencing built into it, and Stockland is building houses in the third sequenced area right now, well out of that order, because the market supported it. Supply follows the market, not only the plan, and that changes where infrastructure has to be delivered.
A single large landholder cuts both ways. They can hold a large parcel until they judge the timing is right, which slows delivery. They can also move first in a new greenfield area, because they have the capital to carry the early stages. Either way it comes back to two questions: can they turn a profit, and can they sell the houses.
The amenity and approval conditions in the Melton answer above apply to activity centres too, and there is one more pressure worth planning for. Land set aside for higher density in centres is attracting aged care and childcare instead, because the return on those uses is currently better. Manor Lakes is a good example, and at Ever Walk in Werribee, delivered through Development Victoria, the high density component became an aged care facility. Townhouses are going in, apartments are not, because the town centre is not there yet.
That pressure for change is not going away, so it is worth holding a clear position on how you want to influence it, and on where you would rather advocate for the amenity uplift that makes the planned density viable.
Answered by Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant, and Rob Hall, Chief Economist at Informed Decisions.
How can developers be encouraged to deliver gentle density and smaller homes?
Elizabeth Blades-Hamilton
Senior Policy and Planning Officer, Wyndham City Council
As submitted: "As a growth municipality Wyndham has a lot of new housing but little housing diversity. How can developers be encouraged to provide gentle density and more one- and two-bedroom homes?"
Look at what those sites are actually being used for. Doing the recent Melbourne West forecast, what stood out across Wyndham and Melton precinct structure plans is that medium density zoned parcels, sometimes the small ones at the end of a street rather than the large ones, are getting aged care and childcare centres instead of three to five storey apartments. The return on those uses is currently much higher in the same location.
Two consequences. First, incentives have to shift the return, not just the permission, which means the levers that cut cost and risk: faster approvals, parking ratios, clear pathways that avoid a tribunal hearing, and council or state land used to seed the first project. Second, if your plan assumed apartments on those parcels, you are short on supply and should say so, because that gap flows straight into infrastructure sizing.
Answered by Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant at Informed Decisions.
Which assets make greenfield development more desirable, and how do they compare?
Aidan Archibald
Infrastructure Planner, City of Playford
As submitted: "You talked about assets that make greenfield development more desirable, like transportation and open space. Can you talk more about this list and how they might be weighted in comparison to each other?"
The list is consistent (transport, access to jobs, schools, open space) but the weighting is not. It varies place to place, and the only reliable way to know your local weighting is to ask residents what they value and what they experience.
That is what our Community Views service measures. In the City of Canning, for example, feeling safe came through as the clear number one resident priority, ahead of assets you might have assumed would rank higher. You can see how it works at views.id.com.au.
Answered by Nenad Petrovic, Head of Consulting at Informed Decisions.
Also raised in this theme. The traffic and transport side of transit oriented development, particularly active transport.
How the forecasts are built
How are population and development forecasts integrated to get to realistic housing supply?
Lulu Huang
Growth Intelligence, Sydney Water
As submitted: "How are population and development forecasts integrated to shape the realistic housing supply?"
They are built from both ends and reconciled in the middle.
From the top, the national forecast cascades to the states, then to SA4s. Australia's states do not operate independently, so the cascade has to carry cross-border effects: a mining boom in Western Australia changes net interstate migration out of Victoria and New South Wales, and you cannot see that forecasting a state on its own. Different drivers apply at each level. Births, deaths and net overseas migration nationally. Economic conditions and entrenched interstate migration patterns at state level, which is how New South Wales ends up with 2.17 million of that growth. Housing policy, infrastructure projects and development capacity at SA4 level, which is how Blacktown lands at 171,000 additional people by 2046.
From the bottom, small area population is driven by individually researched development sites. Schofields East has 149 identified sites capable of supporting almost 28,000 dwellings, and because demand there is strong, nearly all of it gets used, which produces around 56,000 additional people. That does not happen everywhere. Northam in the Western Australian Wheatbelt has something like 100 years of supply and will not use it.
More than 50,000 residential development sites sit behind that, each individually researched using data from councils and from utilities like Barwon Water who tell us what their Geelong growth fronts are doing. Every site with a yield above 10 dwellings carries a status (under construction, in a precinct structure plan, long term potential), a capacity, and a sequence. Harbourside by Mirvac, for instance, is under construction and adds 263 apartments in a known year. Below 10 dwellings, infill assumptions are calculated at SA2 level from zoning, lot size and existing development, which is how an 800 square metre block becoming three villa units gets counted.
Answered by Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant at Informed Decisions.
Slide 11 walks the cascade from national growth down to Schofields East, and slide 12 shows what sits behind a single development site. Watch the session on demand.
What makes a growth forecast realistic rather than a standard scenario?
Esther Perkins
Strategic Planner, Mansfield Shire Council
As submitted: "Factors that go into realistic growth forecasting and how that differentiates from typical forecasting scenarios."
A realistic forecast tells you the most likely future under current and known policy directions. Adding or subtracting 20 per cent to produce a high and low scenario strips out most of what a decision maker can actually use.
Three things make it realistic. The cascade, because the components have to add up: there is a finite volume of net overseas migration to distribute between states, so you cannot forecast each one in isolation. Capacity, because there is a finite amount of additional housing an area can hold, which is why we do not extrapolate development approvals into a dwelling forecast. And judgement about realisation, because a blanket realisation rate is not realistic. Clayton in 2035, with the Suburban Rail Loop built, will not behave like Clayton today.
Every person we forecast needs somewhere to live, so there is a decision behind each one. Why Tarneit West rather than Rockbank?
Answered by Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant at Informed Decisions.
How is density determined for infill compared with greenfield?
Submitted anonymously
As submitted: "How is the population density determined for infill and greenfield? for different types of developments"
Greenfield is the easier read, because density is usually stated in the plan. In Victoria, precinct structure plans used to assume around 18 dwellings per hectare, and the realised figure is now closer to 20 to 22 net dwellings per hectare under Precinct Structure Plan 2.0. Sometimes plans are exceeded: Mount Atkinson is about halfway developed against a precinct plan of roughly 8,000 dwellings and is now tracking to yield 8,443 by 2045. Sometimes they are not going to be met at all, and you can say so early. Mundijong in Western Australia carries 30 dwellings per hectare in its greenfield areas, a long way from the city and without the infrastructure to support it, so that density will not be realised.
Centres and infill cannot be read off the zoning, because what is allowable and what gets delivered are different things. Ellenbrook in Perth sits next to a station on a new line and was largely zoned R40, roughly 42 dwellings per hectare. What was delivered was townhouses at about 25 to 30. So we work from what actually happened in comparable places, then apply it: what Ellenbrook did tells us something about what East Wanneroo will do as it develops. Those patterns travel between states too, with Queensland often tracking Western Australia, and New South Wales tracking Victoria. Infill rates are set locally rather than as a blanket rate across an SA4.
For anyone servicing both a greenfield front and an established area, the harder question is usually which to invest in first, and there the evidence tends to be sobering. In the Melbourne West forecast, the largest in the country by population, 561,000 additional people and 240,000 additional dwellings to 2046 still does not get anywhere near a 30 per cent greenfield and 70 per cent infill split, even with 80 per cent of greenfield capacity used and major centres like Sunshine and Footscray inside the same SA4.
Two other things matter for that decision. Your infill centre competes for the same population growth as every other centre, including centres outside your catchment that may never have entered your analysis, and that competition delays delivery. And established corridors densify progressively rather than all at once: High Street and Plenty Road moved from Northcote to Thornbury to Preston and now Reservoir, with Epping showing early signs. Looking at your catchment in isolation will overstate how quickly infill arrives, which is why you want the top down view alongside the bottom up one.
Answered by Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant, and Rob Hall, Chief Economist at Informed Decisions.
Slide 18 has the Mount Atkinson precinct plan against realised capacity, and slide 19 carries the Melbourne West charts behind the greenfield and infill split. Watch the session on demand.
Do you translate population growth into commercial and industrial development too?
Submitted anonymously
As submitted: "Do you translate your population growth into both dwellings and commercial and industrial development? The utopia for me would be to appreciate the type of developments that are occurring to appreciate the the different types of infrastructure demands"
Our National Forecasting Program covers population and dwellings. The population forecast then feeds an employment forecast, and that is how you get to a full picture of demand in an area rather than a housing-only view.
The Hunter Water work is the clearest example of the two used together. Residential growth and non-residential load were forecast side by side across 31 pump station catchments, which matters for a water utility because trade waste is a large share of total demand and behaves differently from housing. It also brought out something a dwellings-only view would have missed: that catchment imports about half of its workforce, so its non-residential demand is driven by the wider Hunter economy rather than by the people who live inside the catchment boundary.
Answered by Nenad Petrovic, Head of Consulting, and Rob Hall, Chief Economist at Informed Decisions.
Have growth rates been reviewed against earlier censuses, given the COVID period?
Submitted anonymously
As submitted: "for long term, the short-term event like COVID impact usually is limited. Have the project reviewed the growth rate for the past few censuses at the region (SA6)?"
Yes. Because the 2021 Census was conducted during the pandemic, we look at 2016 and 2011 Census data as well, to identify underlying trends the 2021 data does not show.
We also use current estimated resident population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The national forecasts we complete this year will use the 2026 ERP release for June 2025, so we can see both whether our forecasts are holding up against ERP releases and whether new trends are emerging.
Answered by Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant at Informed Decisions.
What data underpins non-residential demand forecasting?
Rachael Wood
Growth Intelligence Specialist, Sydney Water
As submitted: "You mentioned in Hunter Water the trend rate data came from the trade waste register data. If I may ask, what is the type of data that is collected to inform that? e.g. completions, meter connection rate, etc? We would love to do more analytics at Sydney Water and are interested to know what metrics are useful to report on historical trends for future forecasting!"
For each non-residential account, the utility records an Equivalent Tenement (ET), worked out from premises type, worker numbers, water use and a discharge factor, and priced per premises. So it is an administrative view of demand rather than a direct measurement, and worth treating with care, because it can lag activity and jump when it is revalued. At Hunter Water, the same register could support a fourfold range in the trend rate depending on which history you picked.
The metrics I would watch:
- the ET and load series, broken down by industry and sub-catchment, not just the total;
- connections and permits, meaning new versus ceased accounts;
- metered trade waste volumes wherever you have them, which are more direct than assessed ET;
- jobs by industry, by far the strongest driver of ET in our work;
- and ET per job, the intensity ratio that stops you over or under forecasting.
Hunter Water forecast non-residential demand using a five year compound rate from their trade waste register, 0.77 per cent a year. That is sensible and transparent, but a thin basis for a 30 year investment horizon, so we tested it independently against five separate lines of evidence: the historical record, statistical drivers, a labour supply benchmark, the development pipeline, and an integrated model bringing them together. Our reference case landed at 0.71 per cent a year, about 28,800 equivalent tenements by 2055 against their 29,300, so within 2 per cent.
The recommendation was to keep their number, and to watch the shape of the curve rather than the average. Growth runs at about 1.4 per cent a year in the near term, easing to about 0.4 per cent by 2055, and that curve reflects four forces: population growth slowing as greenfield development winds down, continued improvements in water efficiency, a temporary rise and fall in construction jobs around 2030, and the structural decline of water intensive heavy industry such as coal mining, primary metals and petroleum products. Demand peaks and moderates rather than rising in a straight line. Compound at a flat rate instead and you under-provision in the late 2020s, then over-provision in the 2040s. Same headline number, materially different capital timing.
Answered by Nenad Petrovic, Head of Consulting at Informed Decisions.
Slide 25 shows how far a single trend line can swing depending on the history you pick, and slide 27 shows the shape of the curve against a flat rate. Watch the Hunter Water case study.
Also raised in this theme. Pressure testing forecasts against realistic housing supply, population monitoring for planning, forecasting for precinct and infill planning, and using growth forecasts for workforce and resource planning.
Applying this in your own region
How do you identify housing demand in regional and rural areas?
Simon Morrison
Strategic Planner, Kempsey Shire Council
As submitted: "Development and infrastructure feasibility. How to identify market demand for housing and affordable housing in regional and rural areas; demand for existing housing and demand if housing is available."
Assess it through demographic drivers, such as household formation, ageing and migration, alongside market signals including vacancies, rents, rental stress and social housing waitlists.
The key is separating observed demand from latent demand. Low sales or rental activity often reflects limited supply rather than weak demand. Comparing current supply constraints against a scenario where suitable housing is delivered is what exposes unmet demand, and that is what informs development and infrastructure feasibility.
The product mix is shifting too. Apartments are appearing in regional centres like Dubbo and Orange, and the buyers are not the students and young adults you might assume. They are downsizers who want the amenity of the town they grew up in with a low maintenance dwelling, and they are not buying at entry level. They will pay above it for good finishes, which is what keeps the return there.
Answered by Nenad Petrovic, Head of Consulting, and Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant at Informed Decisions.
Could the pause in city house prices benefit the regions?
Trevor Smith
Economic Development Manager, RDA Eyre Peninsula
As submitted: "Investment in housing depends on the ROI for developers. This has traditionally worked in favour of city and metropolitan areas and against regions. Would the recent pause in housing prices in the cities perhaps see a benefit for the regions?"
Not necessarily. A fall in house prices without a matching fall in construction costs puts further pressure on feasibility everywhere, regions and cities alike. The likely near term effect is projects in the pipeline being delayed rather than redirected, which makes understanding developer intent, and monitoring whether approvals turn into reality, more important rather than less.
Regional growth also has its own drivers that are not simply the inverse of city prices. Cost of living in the cities pushes people out, and regional densification tends to be driven by key worker housing and downsizing rather than the demand sources behind city apartments.
Answered by Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant, and Rob Hall, Chief Economist at Informed Decisions.
Where are growth outcomes diverging most from policy direction?
Hannah Duncan-Jones
Head of Strategic Urban Planning and Housing Futures, Melbourne Water
As submitted: "Where growth outcomes are strongly diverging from policy direction."
Two gaps stand out at the moment.
The first is what happens to medium density land in precinct structure plans. Across Wyndham and Melton, parcels zoned for medium density are getting aged care and childcare centres rather than three to five storey apartments, because the return is currently much better. If your plan assumed apartments there, you are short on supply, and that shortfall flows into infrastructure sizing.
The second is sequencing. East Wanneroo's district structure plan had internal sequencing, and Stockland is building in the third sequenced area now, out of order, because the market supported it. The plan said when; the market decided when.
At the other end of the density range, in Sydney areas like St Leonards, developers are grouping floor space ratio and height variations into a single application to justify the scale of a proposal. Most proceed, because the intent for the area is high density. It is the limits of that intent that are being tested.
Answered by Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant at Informed Decisions.
What is the timing rationale behind these forecasts?
Alex Dias
Asset Performance and Forecasting Principal, Water Corporation WA
As submitted: "We are existing customers. Looking to understand the timing rationale."
Timing is driven by the feasibility of each development, regional supply and demand, and market conditions. It is also the thing that matters most.
Asked to rank total growth, location and timing by their effect on the Hunter Water investment decision, the order was timing, then where, then how much. Everyone anchors on the total, and you can get the total exactly right and still get the capital decision wrong: provision too early and the asset is stranded, too late and you are chasing demand.
The numbers make the point. Across the four scenarios, the same catchment produced anywhere between roughly 91,000 and 104,000 dwellings by 2055, a spread of more than 13,000 dwellings driven purely by when and how densely sites deliver. One transit oriented development precinct alone moved its start date from 2032 to 2041, depending on the scenario and whether that precinct's feasibility materialises.
Location matters next because it tells you which assets carry the load. Across Hunter Water's 31 pump station catchments, more than 80 per cent of forecast growth lands in just a few areas, and demand between the highest and lowest catchment differed by around 100-fold. A catchment-wide growth rate hides that entirely.
Answered by Nenad Petrovic, Head of Consulting, and Rob Hall, Chief Economist at Informed Decisions.
Slide 26 shows the four scenarios and where growth concentrates across the catchment. Watch the Hunter Water case study.
How will planning reform affect stormwater management?
Kent Feng
IWM Strategic Lead, Manningham Council
As submitted: "How the planning reform will impact Council's management of stormwater and the stormwater-related statutory requirements on developments."
We cannot speak to the statutory side. From a stormwater and sewer management perspective, expect materially more volume and demand in activity centres, where zoning allowances and market demand for housing will push development hardest. Those are also where the oldest assets tend to be.
Answered by Nenad Petrovic, Head of Consulting at Informed Decisions.
How does this apply to my own region?
Matthew Drysdale
Specialist Planning Engineer, TasWater
Martin Cottrell
Senior Planning Engineer, SA Power Networks
As submitted: "Strategies for aligning infrastructure investment with uncertain growth potential within the Tasmanian context." (Matthew Drysdale) and "Population growth by area." (Martin Cottrell)
Start with our write-ups on how national growth flows into each region and what is driving it. For council areas, forecast.id.com.au has the detail publicly.
Below the regional level, forecasts for custom catchments (pump station catchments, distribution areas, zone substations) are available through Placemaker, as a data feed into your own systems, or through advisory work alongside your team. The Hunter Water case study is the full worked example: a utility serving more than 600,000 people across the Lower Hunter with 19 wastewater treatment works, where our national forecasts were rebuilt onto their 31 pump station catchments covering more than 300 identified major development sites plus infill, then run as four scenarios (a most likely view, a densification uplift around the new transit oriented development precincts, faster delivery and slower delivery) giving population, dwellings, dwelling type and household size for every catchment for every year to 2055.
We did not replace Hunter Water's data. They were not short of data and their methods were sound. We verified it, extended it, and put growth onto their asset geography, and because the forecasts are updated often the evidence base stays current.
Answered by Rob Hall, Chief Economist, and Nenad Petrovic, Head of Consulting at Informed Decisions.
Slides 23 and 24 set out the Hunter Water brief and how the forecasts were rebuilt onto their pump station catchments. Watch the full case study on demand.
Also raised in this theme. Transit oriented development forecasts in the Hunter region, synchronising planning over 20 years where partners have different appetites for long term collaboration, regional infrastructure planning to accommodate housing demand, Adelaide examples, utility investment decisions under uncertain growth, and getting more out of our tools.
Questions we are still working on
Two questions deserved a conversation rather than a quick answer, so we have gone back to the people who asked them.
- Johann Rajaratnam, Manager, Urban Renewal and Precinct Planning, Melbourne Water, asked what we need to change to make sure we adapt to change. We would rather understand what prompted the question before answering it.
- Several registrants named a topic rather than asking a question. If yours is not covered above, tell us and we will answer it directly.
Watch the session and test this on your own area
Watch the session on demand for the full recording, slides and resources. It includes the live walkthrough of Residential Development Forecasts in Placemaker across Blacktown, Mount Druitt and Lindfield (slide 21), which shows how unevenly growth lands inside a single local government area.
If you would like to see what this looks like for the area you plan for, we offer a complimentary forecast briefing: the growth story for your own service area or catchment, in the national context, using the forecasts shown in the session.
Rob Hall is Chief Economist at Informed Decisions. Oliver Bowering is a Senior Forecast Consultant. Nenad Petrovic is Head of Consulting. Informed Decisions has been producing independent population forecasts and local area insight for Australian communities since 1997.
Meet the team of experts
Our specialists have deep expertise in demographics and spatial analysis, urban economics, housing research, social research and population forecasting
