Wheat Belt region

Continued centralisation of population as smaller towns hollow out

The Wheat Belt SA4 is forecast to pass 150,000 residents in 2029 and reach 155,806 by 2046, a net gain of 14,189 people and 11,728 additional dwellings from the 2021 base.

The population of the Wheat Belt SA4 is expected to deliver continued growth, albeit at levels lower than the region has seen since the post-Covid boom. A large proportion of this growth is expected to be focused around the established regional centre of Albany, where suburbs such as Bayonet Head and Lower King continue to sprawl at a steady pace. The relative self-sufficiency of this centre (maintaining a hospital, university campus and Port of Albany) ensures its continued draw for population. Another expected growth front in the SA4 is the new Lancelin South Estate just out of Lancelin along the western coastline, along with the continuation of the gradual fill-out of the holiday town of Jurien Bay further north.

"The relative self-sufficiency of Albany (maintaining a hospital, university campus and Port of Albany) ensures its continued draw for population."

Liza Ivanova, Senior Population Forecaster, National Forecasting Program

On the other hand, most other areas in this region are expected to either hold steady or commence a slight decline in population. The SA4 is a rapidly ageing one, with median ages well above 40 years and in some instances above 50, so a decline becomes inevitable over the coming decades due to natural decrease (deaths outpacing births). Inflow of migration is not expected to support the inland crop-producing regions, as additional employment opportunities are not being created.

Western Australia is forecast to add just under 1.2 million people by 2046. The Wheat Belt SA4 region contributes about 1.2% of this growth, the lowest share among the state's SA4 regions.

Read our forecast results and analysis for Western Australia to learn more about how the different drivers of population change affect the distribution of growth throughout the state.

The population forecast for Western Australia

The following figures are from version 2021.2024.3.1.1 of the National Forecasting Program, based on 2021 Census data and ABS Estimated Resident Population figures through to 2024. The table covers the full Wheat Belt SA4 region; more detailed breakdowns by LGA, suburb or custom catchment are available on request.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.