National Forecast Program

Hobart

Hobart SA4

Published: July 2026
Version: 2021.2024.3.1.1

Population and dwelling forecast for the Hobart SA4.

Hobart

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About the Hobart region

Tasmania is forecast to reach 603,080 people by 2046. Greater Hobart, as the state's capital and largest urban area, accounts for a substantial share of that growth, concentrated in the outer growth corridors of Clarence, Sorell, Brighton and Kingborough, while the established inner suburbs remain largely stable.

The Hobart SA4 covers Tasmania's capital city and the metropolitan area surrounding the River Derwent estuary. It is the state's largest population centre, spanning the inner city and established western shore suburbs in the City of Hobart, the Eastern Shore in the City of Clarence including Rokeby, Howrah, Bellerive and Lindisfarne, the northern suburbs along the Derwent in the City of Glenorchy, the northern growth corridor in the Municipality of Brighton including Bridgewater, Gagebrook and Old Beach, the southern suburbs of Kingborough centred on Kingston, Huntingfield and Blackmans Bay, the eastern satellite town of Sorell, and the Derwent Valley around New Norfolk.

The SA4 encompasses the City of Hobart, the City of Glenorchy and the City of Clarence, along with the municipalities of Kingborough, Brighton, Sorell and Derwent Valley.

The major economic activities in the region are state and local government administration, health and social services, tertiary education through the University of Tasmania, tourism and hospitality, Antarctic and Southern Ocean science and logistics, with Hobart one of the world's principal gateways to Antarctica, and port and maritime industries. The inner city is the primary employment and services centre, followed by Glenorchy in the north and the Clarence centres of Rokeby, Howrah and Bellerive on the Eastern Shore. Kingston serves as the main centre for the growing southern suburbs.

Population growth is shaped by interstate migration, housing affordability relative to mainland capital cities, and the release of greenfield land in the outer growth corridors of Brighton, Sorell, Clarence and Kingborough. Employment growth in the government, health and university sectors underpins demand, while topographic constraints, heritage considerations and river crossing capacity limit development in the established inner suburbs, where the population is ageing in place.

About the Hobart region

Key Findings

Hobart is forecast to grow from 250,717 people in 2021 to 270,674 by 2046, an increase of 19,957 residents and average growth of 0.31% a year. Dwelling stock grows from 106,303 to 124,883 over the same period.

  • Growth is concentrated on the Eastern Shore, where the Rokeby SA2 is forecast to grow from 8,014 to 14,753 people, an increase of 6,739 and the largest in the SA4. This is driven by Clarence's designated primary urban growth area, planned to deliver around 2,500 new homes across six neighbourhoods over the coming decades.
  • Sorell is one of Tasmania's fastest growing municipalities. The Sorell - Richmond SA2 is forecast to grow from 10,131 to 13,628 people, an increase of 3,497, with further growth at Dodges Ferry - Lewisham. The Sorell East Growth Area provides for at least 1,400 dwellings and was added to the Greater Hobart urban growth boundary in 2025, adding to several already approved subdivisions east of the township.
  • Kingston is the main centre for the southern suburbs, with the Kingston - Huntingfield SA2 forecast to grow from 13,758 to 16,353 people, an increase of 2,595. Much of this is directed to the Homes Tasmania Huntingfield land release, a staged subdivision of around 470 lots with the first homes coming to market from late 2025.
  • The northern growth corridor in the Municipality of Brighton, Tasmania's fastest growing and youngest local government area, continues to expand. Bridgewater - Gagebrook grows by around 1,860 people and Old Beach - Otago by around 1,560, supported by the new Bridgewater Bridge and greenfield estates including Tivoli Green and South Brighton.
  • Glenorchy's population is lifted by the planned redevelopment of the Derwent Barracks defence site at Dowsing Point, announced by the Federal and State governments in May 2026. The 31 hectare site is slated to become a new suburb of up to 1,000 homes, with a mix of medium density, social and affordable housing two kilometres from the Glenorchy CBD and close to a future ferry terminal. The Derwent Park - Lutana SA2 is forecast to grow from 4,774 to 6,113 people, an increase of 1,339, with growth weighted to the 2030s and beyond, reflecting the staged transfer of the site and its early planning status.
  • Inner Hobart adds around 1,800 people through infill and apartment development, but many established inner and southern suburbs, including Lindisfarne - Rose Bay, Kingston Beach - Blackmans Bay, West Hobart and South Arm, are forecast to be flat or to decline slightly, reflecting ageing populations and limited greenfield capacity.

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Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the numbers for the Hobart SA4.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

202120262031203620412046
Forecast Population250,717257,591262,425266,788269,252270,674
Change (five year)-6,8744,8344,3632,4641,422
Average Annual Change (%)-0.54%0.37%0.33%0.18%0.11%
Forecast Dwellings106,303111,466115,678119,351122,361124,883
Change (five year)-5,1634,2123,6733,0102,522
Average Annual Change (%)-0.95%0.74%0.63%0.50%0.41%

The team

Our forecasting team

Prepared and presented by experts from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Principal Consultant

Liza Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Principal Forecast Consultant

Richard  Thornton

Richard Thornton

Head of Forecasting

Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Senior Forecast Consultant

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