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National Forecast Program
Adelaide - South
Adelaide - South SA4
Published: March 2026
Version 5.2.0
The population and housing forecast for the Adelaide – South Region.
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Detailed forecasts are available for this region
Our premium services give you detailed forecast information for this region to help you invest in the right place, at the right time.
- Forecasts by age and sex
- Single-year forecast periods
- Custom local area geography
- Forecasts of housing and development
ABOUT
About the Adelaide – South Region
South Australia is forecast to add 335,000 people by 2046. The Adelaide – South region contributes around 15% of this growth.
- Adelaide – South covers the southern metropolitan region of Adelaide, from the seaside suburb of Glenelg down the coast to Aldinga and Sellicks Beach, east to the inner hills regions of Blackwood and Belair and the agricultural areas of the Coromandel Valley and Maclaren Vale.
- As an established metropolitan area, most of the population growth is expected to occur via brownfields regeneration sites (e.g. Port Stanvac), a few last remaining greenfields sites (e.g. Onkaparinga Heights, Aldinga) or via infill intensification.
Key Findings
The Adelaide – South SA4 population is forecast to pass 400,000 in 2027, reaching approximately 429,000 by 2046 – a net gain of around 51,000 residents since 2021. The region is also expected to add around 23,000 dwellings over the same period.
- Brownfields regeneration, often led by the State Government through its RenewalSA entity, is a notable feature of this region. Noarlunga, Aldinga, Onkaparinga Heights and Tonsley are examples of this, and are expected to continue delivering housing throughout the forecast period.
- The Greater Adelaide Regional Plan (GARP) envisages growth along many of the major arterial roads in the northern parts of the region, and the Christies Beach / Downs area. Smaller apartment buildings are expected to be built here, though as yet there are only limited examples of this.
- The reserve for the rail extension to Aldinga has been factored into plans for the Quinliven Road Estate. The Department for Infrastructure and Transport states that the extension is to be pursued in the 2030s.
Access
How to access the National Forecasting Program
Our National Forecasting Program is the backbone of all of our forecasting products and services for government and business.
Government Toolkit
Our Government Toolkit gives users access to the proprietary datasets maintained by .id through a suite of intuitive online tools.
See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.
Demand Analytics Data and Services
id's Demand Analytics Data and Services are underpinned by our unique datasets, accessed via in-house feed or online platform. Development insights are available in spatial visualisation tools or as a flat data file.
Consulting Services
Got a bespoke project? Tap into our datasets via our tailored consulting services for local government and business. Get in touch to discuss your needs.
Government Toolkit
Our Government Toolkit gives users access to the proprietary datasets maintained by .id through a suite of intuitive online tools.
See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.
Government Toolkit
Our Government Toolkit gives users access to the proprietary datasets maintained by .id through a suite of intuitive online tools.
See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.
Forecast results
The following forecast information presents the numbers for Adelaide – South.
Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast Population | 377,999 | 398,365 | 408,879 | 417,249 | 423,601 | 428,850 |
| Change (five year) | - | 20,366 | 10,514 | 8,371 | 6,352 | 5,248 |
| Average Annual Change (%) | - | 1.06% | 0.52% | 0.41% | 0.30% | 0.25% |
| Forecast Dwellings | 162,810 | 168,768 | 173,975 | 178,212 | 182,133 | 185,988 |
| Change (five year) | - | 5,959 | 5,207 | 4,237 | 3,921 | 3,855 |
| Average Annual Change (%) | - | 0.72% | 0.61% | 0.48% | 0.44% | 0.42% |
The team
Our forecasting team
Prepared and presented by experts from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.
Johnny Barnard
Principal Consultant
Liza Ivanova
Principal Forecast Consultant
Richard Thornton
Head of Forecasting
Chris Jones
Forecaster
Oliver Bowering
Senior Forecast Consultant
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