National Forecast Program

Adelaide - South

Adelaide - South SA4

Published: March 2026
Version 5.2.0

The population and housing forecast for the Adelaide – South Region.

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Adelaide - South

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ABOUT

About the Adelaide – South Region

South Australia is forecast to add 335,000 people by 2046. The Adelaide – South region contributes around 15% of this growth.

  • Adelaide – South covers the southern metropolitan region of Adelaide, from the seaside suburb of Glenelg down the coast to Aldinga and Sellicks Beach, east to the inner hills regions of Blackwood and Belair and the agricultural areas of the Coromandel Valley and Maclaren Vale.
  • As an established metropolitan area, most of the population growth is expected to occur via brownfields regeneration sites (e.g. Port Stanvac), a few last remaining greenfields sites (e.g. Onkaparinga Heights, Aldinga) or via infill intensification.
About the Adelaide – South Region

Key Findings

The Adelaide – South SA4 population is forecast to pass 400,000 in 2027, reaching approximately 429,000 by 2046 – a net gain of around 51,000 residents since 2021. The region is also expected to add around 23,000 dwellings over the same period.

  • Brownfields regeneration, often led by the State Government through its RenewalSA entity, is a notable feature of this region. Noarlunga, Aldinga, Onkaparinga Heights and Tonsley are examples of this, and are expected to continue delivering housing throughout the forecast period.
  • The Greater Adelaide Regional Plan (GARP) envisages growth along many of the major arterial roads in the northern parts of the region, and the Christies Beach / Downs area. Smaller apartment buildings are expected to be built here, though as yet there are only limited examples of this.
  • The reserve for the rail extension to Aldinga has been factored into plans for the Quinliven Road Estate. The Department for Infrastructure and Transport states that the extension is to be pursued in the 2030s.

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Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the numbers for Adelaide – South.

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202120262031203620412046
Forecast Population377,999398,365408,879417,249423,601428,850
Change (five year)-20,36610,5148,3716,3525,248
Average Annual Change (%)-1.06%0.52%0.41%0.30%0.25%
Forecast Dwellings162,810168,768173,975178,212182,133185,988
Change (five year)-5,9595,2074,2373,9213,855
Average Annual Change (%)-0.72%0.61%0.48%0.44%0.42%

The team

Our forecasting team

Prepared and presented by experts from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Principal Consultant

Liza Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Principal Forecast Consultant

Richard Thornton

Richard Thornton

Head of Forecasting

Chris Jones

Chris Jones

Forecaster

Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Senior Forecast Consultant

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