National Forecast Program

Adelaide North

The population and housing forecast for the Adelaide - North region

SA4s in region:

  • Adelaide - North

Published: February 2026
Version: 5.2.0

Read forecast analysis and insights for the Adelaide - North region from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.

Adelaide North

ABOUT

About the Adelaide North Region

  • Adelaide – North stretches from Grand Junction Road to Virginia in the north-west and Gawler in the north east, encompassing most of the major greenfields growth areas of Adelaide, and includes the Council areas of Salisbury, Playford, Tea Tree Gully and parts of Port Adelaide-Enfield, Barossa, Light Regional and Adelaide Plains Regional Councils. In addition to significant residential population, it has large amounts of industry, both the General Aviation Parafield airport and the RAAF Edinburgh base, and horticulture.  
  • Much of the growth is in large greenfields developments of standard density detached dwellings. Key sites are the Riverlea development near Virginia, Angle Vale, Playford Alive, Concordia and Roseworthy. In addition, plans have also been launched for the Kudla region (between the current northern fringe of the Adelaide plains residential footprint and Gawler) as well as the Dry Creek salt pans, next to Barker Inlet/Torrens Island and Gulf St Vincent. Towards the end of the forecast period and other development opportunities are used, this SA4 will increasingly take the bulk of population growth in Adelaide and South Australia. 

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  • Forecasts by age and sex
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Detailed forecasts are available for this region

KEY FINDINGS

Adelaide North

The Adelaide North SA4 population is forecast to pass 550,000 in 2038.

The Riverlea, Angle Vale and Playford North developments will continue to deliver significant growth across the forecast period. Concordia is expected to start delivering housing from about 2031 and the Kudla / Salt Pans developments after that.

Smaller regeneration developments are expected in Oakden, the Smithfield Barracks and in Golden Grove, as well as relatively high levels of infill as the larger blocks originally provided in the 1950s and 1960s are subdivided. Little higher density development is expected beyond some townhouse style buildings.

Infrastructure (water, sewer) limitations are present across the region limiting the speed and ease of development. This was recognised by the February 2026 agreement between the SA State Government and the Australian government to provide extra finance to facilitate upgrades in a timely fashion.

Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the numbers for the Adelaide - North Region.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

202120262031203620412046
Forecast Population461,134496,135 520,387 543,496 565,051 585,531
Change (five year)- 35,001 24,253 23,108 21,556 20,479
Average Annual Change (%)-1.47% 0.96% 0.87% 0.78% 0.71%
Forecast Dwellings 182,768196,903 210,650 224,437 238,056 251,539
Change (five year- 14,135 13,747 13,788 13,619 13,483
Average Annual Change (%)-1.50% 1.36% 1.28% 1.19% 1.11%

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The team

Our forecasting team

Prepared and presented by experts from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Forecaster

Liza  Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Forecaster

Richard  Thornton

Richard Thornton

Product Manager Forecast

Chris Jones

Chris Jones

Forecaster

Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Forecaster

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