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Population and housing forecast for Adelaide – North
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Adelaide – North, which stretches from Grand Junction Road to Virginia and Gawler, covering the Salisbury, Playford, Tea Tree Gully and Gawler council areas and parts of Port Adelaide Enfield, Barossa, Light and Adelaide Plains.
- Region
- Adelaide – North · SA4 402
- Councils
- Adelaide Plains (part), Barossa (part), Gawler, Light (part), Playford, Port Adelaide Enfield (part), Salisbury, Tea Tree Gully
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 10/02/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Enfield
- Mawson Lakes
- Salisbury
- Parafield Gardens
- Elizabeth
- Munno Para
- Golden Grove
- Modbury
- Angle Vale
- Virginia
- Gawler
- Roseworthy
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateSouth Australia+0.34m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionAdelaide – North+124,39736.9% of South Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.4 · Feb 2026
- Below the region33 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
South Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of South Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
Infrastructure (water, sewer) limitations are present across the region limiting the speed and ease of development. This was recognised by the February 2026 agreement between the SA State Government and the Australian government to provide extra finance to facilitate upgrades in a timely fashion.
The forecast
461,134
Population, 2021
585,531
Population, 2046
+124,397
Total growth to 2046
+68,769
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 461,134 | — | 182,768 | — | 19.6 | 64.8 | 15.6 |
| 2026 | 496,136 | +35,002 | 196,902 | +14,134 | 18.6 | 64.8 | 16.6 |
| 2031 | 520,388 | +24,252 | 210,649 | +13,747 | 17.8 | 64.4 | 17.8 |
| 2036 | 543,496 | +23,108 | 224,436 | +13,787 | 17.4 | 63.8 | 18.8 |
| 2041 | 565,051 | +21,555 | 238,054 | +13,618 | 17.2 | 63.7 | 19.1 |
| 2046 | 585,531 | +20,480 | 251,537 | +13,483 | 17.2 | 63.6 | 19.2 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Gawler – Two Wells | 14.7% | |
| Playford | 46.5% | |
| Port Adelaide – East | 25.0% | |
| Salisbury | 10.6% | |
| Tea Tree Gully | 43.6% | |
| Adelaide – North total | 27.2% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 804 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eyre At Penfield Estate | 294 Womma Road Eyre | Greenfield | Site clearing |
| Brookmont - Andrews Farm | 10 Brookmont Boulevard Andrews Farm | Greenfield | Under construction |
| Oakden Rise Estate | Grand Junction Road | Redevelopment | Marketing |
| William Lakes Estate | Gawler - North | Greenfield | Marketing |
| The Entrance Estate | Munno Para West - Angle Vale | Greenfield | Under construction |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 125 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Parafield Gardens
- Paralowie
- Mawson Lakes
- Craigmore
- Salisbury North
- Andrews Farm
- Golden Grove
- Greenwith
- Ingle Farm
- Blakeview
- Salisbury East
- Angle Vale
- Salisbury
- Hope Valley
- Munno Para West
- Wynn Vale
- Pooraka
- Davoren Park
- Highbury
- Modbury Heights
- + 105 more
Plus 105 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Adelaide – North
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 804 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.
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