GOVERNMENT TOOLS
CONSULTING
National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Western Australia – Wheat Belt
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Western Australia – Wheat Belt, which covers a wide stretch of Western Australia's farming country, with towns such as Jurien Bay, Moora, Northam, York, Merredin, Narrogin, Katanning and Albany.
- Region
- Western Australia – Wheat Belt · SA4 509
- Councils
- Albany, Beverley, Boddington, Brookton, Broomehill-Tambellup, Bruce Rock, Chittering, Corrigin, Cranbrook, Cuballing, Cunderdin, Dalwallinu, Dandaragan, Denmark, Dowerin, Dumbleyung, Gingin, Gnowangerup, Goomalling, Jerramungup (part), Katanning, Kellerberrin, Kent, Kojonup, Kondinin, Koorda, Kulin, Lake Grace, Merredin, Moora, Mount Marshall, Mukinbudin, Murray (part), Narembeen, Narrogin, Northam, Nungarin, Pingelly, Plantagenet, Quairading, Tammin, Toodyay, Trayning, Victoria Plains, Wagin, Wandering, West Arthur, Westonia, Wickepin, Williams, Wongan-Ballidu, Woodanilling, Wyalkatchem, Yilgarn, York
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 25/06/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Lancelin
- Jurien Bay
- Moora
- Northam
- Toodyay
- York
- Merredin
- Narrogin
- Katanning
- Mount Barker
- Denmark
- Albany
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateWestern Australia+1.18m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionWestern Australia – Wheat Belt+14,1911.2% of Western Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jun 2026
- Below the region26 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Western Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Western Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
141,617
Population, 2021
155,808
Population, 2046
+14,191
Total growth to 2046
+11,728
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 141,617 | — | 70,664 | — | 17.8 | 59.7 | 22.5 |
| 2026 | 148,746 | +7,129 | 73,058 | +2,394 | 16.5 | 58.6 | 24.9 |
| 2031 | 151,093 | +2,347 | 75,436 | +2,378 | 15.3 | 56.4 | 28.2 |
| 2036 | 153,122 | +2,029 | 77,807 | +2,371 | 14.9 | 54.5 | 30.6 |
| 2041 | 154,692 | +1,570 | 80,126 | +2,319 | 14.9 | 53.3 | 31.8 |
| 2046 | 155,808 | +1,116 | 82,392 | +2,266 | 14.8 | 53.0 | 32.2 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Albany | 12.6% | |
| Wheat Belt – North | 6.1% | |
| Wheat Belt – South | 6.2% | |
| Western Australia – Wheat Belt total | 8.5% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 485 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ardess-Walmsley Local Structure Plan Area, Walmsley | 79 - Mercer Road Walmsley | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Beachridge Estate - Stage 2, Jurien Bay | 6 - Dover Way Jurien Bay | Greenfield | Under construction |
| Lot 9001 Rosewood Drive Structure Plan, Chittering | 22 - Weitj Vista Chittering | Greenfield | Under construction |
| Oyster Head Estate Future Urban, Bayonet Head | Bayonet Head | Greenfield | Under construction |
| Structure Plan For Boundary Street, Le Grande Avenu And Flemington Street, Mckail | 14 - Boundary Street Mckail | Redevelopment | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 611 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Northam
- McKail
- Narrogin
- Katanning
- Bayonet Head
- Spencer Park
- Yakamia
- Mount Barker
- Denmark
- Merredin
- Lower Chittering
- York
- Jurien Bay
- Orana
- Lower King
- Mira Mar
- Moora
- Albany
- Little Grove
- Toodyay
- + 591 more
Plus 591 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Western Australia – Wheat Belt
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 485 development sites assessed in this region alone.
500+
organisations across Australia trust Informed Decisions for data and insights
15,000+
suburbs forecast, covering every part of Australia
A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.