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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Western Australia – Outback (South)
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Western Australia – Outback (South), which covers the Goldfields-Esperance, Mid West and Gascoyne regions of the state, including Kalgoorlie, Esperance, Geraldton, Carnarvon, Exmouth, Meekatharra and Laverton.
- Region
- Western Australia – Outback (South) · SA4 511
- Councils
- Carnamah, Carnarvon, Chapman Valley, Coolgardie, Coorow, Cue, Dundas, Esperance, Exmouth (part), Greater Geraldton, Irwin, Jerramungup (part), Kalgoorlie-Boulder, Laverton, Leonora, Meekatharra, Menzies, Mingenew, Morawa, Mount Magnet, Murchison, Ngaanyatjarraku, Northampton, Perenjori, Ravensthorpe, Sandstone, Shark Bay, Three Springs, Upper Gascoyne, Wiluna, Yalgoo
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 27/05/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Geraldton
- Dongara
- Kalbarri
- Carnarvon
- Exmouth
- Denham
- Meekatharra
- Mount Magnet
- Kalgoorlie
- Boulder
- Norseman
- Esperance
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateWestern Australia+1.18m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionWestern Australia – Outback (South)+14,4631.2% of Western Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · May 2026
- Below the region19 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Western Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Western Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
123,991
Population, 2021
138,454
Population, 2046
+14,463
Total growth to 2046
+7,105
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 123,991 | — | 61,042 | — | 19.8 | 65.1 | 15.1 |
| 2026 | 128,805 | +4,814 | 61,937 | +895 | 18.0 | 64.7 | 17.2 |
| 2031 | 131,904 | +3,099 | 63,397 | +1,460 | 16.6 | 64.0 | 19.5 |
| 2036 | 134,475 | +2,571 | 65,015 | +1,618 | 15.9 | 62.6 | 21.4 |
| 2041 | 136,657 | +2,182 | 66,569 | +1,554 | 15.9 | 61.5 | 22.6 |
| 2046 | 138,454 | +1,797 | 68,147 | +1,578 | 15.8 | 61.1 | 23.1 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Esperance | 22.4% | |
| Gascoyne | 26.8% | |
| Goldfields | 31.8% | |
| Mid West | 22.9% | |
| Western Australia – Outback (South) total | 25.2% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 163 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amara Estate | Hart Kerspien Drive, Broadwood, Wa 6430 | Greenfield | Approved |
| Bay View Development Estate | 30 Moir St, Sinclair Wa 6450 | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Woorree New Town Structure Plan | Windlass Avenue, Moresby Wa 6530 | Greenfield | Approved |
| Double Beach Estate - Cape Burney | 35863-36057 Brand Highway & 1 Greenough River Road, Cape Burney Wa 6532 | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Glenfield Beach Estate | 219 Glenfield Bch Dr, Glenfield Wa 6532 | Greenfield | Approved |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 338 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Boulder
- Wandina
- South Kalgoorlie
- Somerville
- Castletown
- Kalgoorlie
- Mount Tarcoola
- Geraldton
- Exmouth
- Waggrakine
- Hannans
- Piccadilly
- Esperance
- Lamington
- Spalding
- Rangeway
- Sunset Beach
- Kambalda West
- Wonthella
- Drummond Cove
- + 318 more
Plus 318 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Western Australia – Outback (South)
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 163 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.