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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Western Australia – Outback (North)
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Western Australia – Outback (North), which covers the Kimberley, in the state's far north, and the Pilbara, including Broome, Derby, Kununurra, Halls Creek, Karratha, Port Hedland, Newman and Tom Price.
- Region
- Western Australia – Outback (North) · SA4 510
- Councils
- Ashburton, Broome, Derby-West Kimberley, East Pilbara, Exmouth (part), Halls Creek, Karratha, Port Hedland, Wyndham-East Kimberley
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 19/05/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Broome
- Derby
- Fitzroy Crossing
- Halls Creek
- Kununurra
- Wyndham
- Karratha
- Port Hedland
- South Hedland
- Newman
- Tom Price
- Onslow
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateWestern Australia+1.18m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionWestern Australia – Outback (North)+20,6211.7% of Western Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · May 2026
- Below the region12 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Western Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Western Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
96,943
Population, 2021
117,564
Population, 2046
+20,621
Total growth to 2046
+8,310
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 96,943 | — | 43,990 | — | 23.7 | 71.5 | 4.8 |
| 2026 | 103,458 | +6,515 | 44,518 | +528 | 21.0 | 73.1 | 5.9 |
| 2031 | 107,912 | +4,454 | 46,324 | +1,806 | 18.1 | 74.6 | 7.3 |
| 2036 | 111,783 | +3,871 | 48,394 | +2,070 | 16.4 | 75.2 | 8.4 |
| 2041 | 114,929 | +3,146 | 50,474 | +2,080 | 15.7 | 75.0 | 9.3 |
| 2046 | 117,564 | +2,635 | 52,300 | +1,826 | 15.3 | 74.7 | 10.0 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| East Pilbara | 23.7% | |
| Kimberley | 27.0% | |
| West Pilbara | 9.6% | |
| Western Australia – Outback (North) total | 15.2% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 174 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madigan Road Structure Plan Remainder | Lot 500 Madigan Road | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Broome North District Structure Plan - Residential | Tanami Drive | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Mulatage Structure Plan | Lot 501, 502, 4638, 4661 - Millstream Road, Bayview Road And Maitland Road | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Broome North District Structure Plan - Residential | Broome North | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Broome North District Structure Plan - Residential | Broome North | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 111 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- South Hedland
- Cable Beach
- Newman
- Kununurra
- Nickol
- Baynton
- Broome
- Port Hedland
- Derby
- Djugun
- Bulgarra
- Tom Price
- Millars Well
- Pegs Creek
- Wickham
- Halls Creek
- Paraburdoo
- Dampier
- Bilingurr
- Fitzroy Crossing
- + 91 more
Plus 91 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Western Australia – Outback (North)
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 174 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.