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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for West and North West
Our latest population and housing forecasts for West and North West, which covers western and north-western Tasmania, including Devonport, Latrobe, Ulverstone, Burnie, Wynyard, Smithton, Queenstown, Strahan and King Island.
- Region
- West and North West · SA4 604
- Councils
- Burnie, Central Coast (Tas.), Circular Head, Devonport, Kentish, King Island, Latrobe (Tas.), Waratah-Wynyard, West Coast
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 23/04/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Devonport
- Latrobe
- Port Sorell
- Sheffield
- Ulverstone
- Burnie
- Wynyard
- Stanley
- Smithton
- Queenstown
- Strahan
- Currie
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateTasmania+0.04m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionWest and North West+2,5177.0% of Tasmania's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Apr 2026
- Below the region24 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Tasmania's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Tasmania is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
119,006
Population, 2021
121,523
Population, 2046
+2,517
Total growth to 2046
+6,098
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 119,006 | — | 55,296 | — | 17.1 | 60.5 | 22.5 |
| 2026 | 120,527 | +1,521 | 57,193 | +1,897 | 15.7 | 58.9 | 25.4 |
| 2031 | 121,308 | +781 | 58,553 | +1,360 | 14.8 | 57.2 | 28.1 |
| 2036 | 121,653 | +345 | 59,554 | +1,001 | 14.4 | 55.8 | 29.8 |
| 2041 | 121,608 | −45 | 60,490 | +936 | 14.5 | 55.4 | 30.2 |
| 2046 | 121,523 | −85 | 61,394 | +904 | 14.8 | 55.9 | 29.3 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Burnie – Ulverstone | 34.6% | |
| Devonport | 28.7% | |
| West Coast | 10.3% | |
| West and North West total | 29.2% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 225 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawley Beach Estate | 11 Glyde Street, Hawley Beach, Tas 7307 | Greenfield | Under construction |
| Bable Way Future Subdivision | West Ulverstone | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Hogg Street Subdivision | 24 - Heron Avenue Wynyard | Greenfield | Complete |
| Mooreville Residential Potential | 281 - Mooreville Road Mooreville | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Calthorpe Street Estate | Calthorpe Street, Latrobe, Tas 7307 | Greenfield | Complete |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 220 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Devonport
- Wynyard
- Ulverstone
- Latrobe
- West Ulverstone
- East Devonport
- Penguin
- Somerset
- Smithton
- Park Grove
- Shorewell Park
- Port Sorell
- Turners Beach
- Upper Burnie
- Shearwater
- Spreyton
- Miandetta
- Queenstown
- Romaine
- Sheffield
- + 200 more
Plus 200 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for West and North West
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 225 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.