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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for South East
Our latest population and housing forecasts for South East, which surrounds Greater Hobart, covering the Tasman, Southern Midlands and Central Highlands council areas and parts of Huon Valley, Derwent Valley, Glamorgan-Spring Bay and Kingborough, including Huonville and Swansea.
- Region
- South East · SA4 603
- Councils
- Central Highlands (Tas.), Derwent Valley (part), Glamorgan-Spring Bay (part), Huon Valley (part), Kingborough (part), Southern Midlands, Tasman
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 30/03/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Huonville
- Cygnet
- Geeveston
- Dover
- Kettering
- Nubeena
- Port Arthur
- Oatlands
- Bothwell
- Triabunna
- Swansea
- Bicheno
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateTasmania+0.04m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionSouth East+6,03916.8% of Tasmania's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Mar 2026
- Below the region10 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Tasmania's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Tasmania is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
42,790
Population, 2021
48,829
Population, 2046
+6,039
Total growth to 2046
+3,902
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 42,790 | — | 25,632 | — | 15.7 | 60.8 | 23.6 |
| 2026 | 44,935 | +2,145 | 26,287 | +655 | 14.2 | 58.3 | 27.5 |
| 2031 | 46,101 | +1,166 | 27,024 | +737 | 13.9 | 55.9 | 30.2 |
| 2036 | 47,317 | +1,216 | 27,970 | +946 | 14.0 | 55.1 | 30.9 |
| 2041 | 48,216 | +899 | 28,775 | +805 | 14.2 | 55.1 | 30.6 |
| 2046 | 48,829 | +613 | 29,534 | +759 | 14.4 | 55.9 | 29.8 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Central Highlands (Tas.) | 30.1% | |
| Huon – Bruny Island | 34.7% | |
| South East Coast | 30.7% | |
| South East total | 32.7% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 75 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huonville Structure Plan - Potential Development | Lot 1 Main Street | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Cygnet Masterplan - Council Depot & Old School Farm Potential Homes | 20 Golden Valley Road & 8-10 George Street | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Huonville General Residential Potential Development | Huonville | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Bagdad Future Urban | 1830-1844 Midland Highway | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Mary Street - Potential Shop Top Housing | 20- 30 & 7-21 Mary Street | Apartments | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 202 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Huonville
- Cygnet
- Ranelagh
- Bagdad
- Franklin
- Geeveston
- Campania
- Bicheno
- Dover
- Swansea
- Lachlan
- Kettering
- Triabunna
- Oatlands
- Orford
- Glen Huon
- Coles Bay
- Mountain River
- Grove
- Port Huon
- + 182 more
Plus 182 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for South East
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 75 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.